Iran nuclear talks and sanctions

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1. Tuesday, 29 September 20266 updates

   • 10:13News

     NewsTrump denies offering Iran sanctions relief for nuclear concessions - US politics live

     The Guardian

     President uses social media post to deny reports that he was willing to ease sanctions in return for 'concrete' steps over its nuclear program

   • 09:59Odds

     OddsPolymarket: "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?" at 4%

     Polymarket

     First tracked price for this market.

   • 08:15News

     NewsUS-Iran talks continue, but 'deal unlikely' before midterm elections

     Al Jazeera

   • 07:26News

     NewsOil Rises Despite Saudi Pipeline Repair as U.S.-Iran Talks Stall - WSJ

     WSJ

   • 04:02News

     NewsU.S., Iran hold separate mediator talks as Mideast oil exports hit war-time high

     CNBC

   • 02:36News

     NewsIran's Araghchi meets Qatari mediators as US calls for nuclear talks

     Al Jazeera

2. Monday, 28 September 20268 updates

   • 22:47News

     NewsTrump demands Axios pull 'hoax' story about Iran sanctions relief

     Washington Examiner

   • 22:13News

     NewsIran officials renew call for deal to open Hormuz despite Trump's peace plan rejection

     Washington Times

     Iran's foreign minister met with mediators on Monday in New York City to review the latest proposals from both sides and exchange views about the current state of his country's war with the U.S. and I

   • 20:31News

3. Sunday, 27 September 20266 updates

   • 22:25News

     NewsOil gains over 3% as US-Iran peace talks in stalemate - Reuters

     Reuters

   • 17:42News

     NewsMike Waltz: US offered to sell Iran uranium for civilian programme

     Al Jazeera

   • 15:26News

     News

4. Friday, 25 September 20262 updates

   • 07:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will publicly reject or suspend cooperation with IAEA-mediated nuclear negotiations within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.

   • 03:34Forecast

     ForecastIran will announce a formal breach of IAEA safeguards or enrichment escalation beyond current thresholds within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 32% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.

5. Thursday, 24 September 20261 update

   • 02:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will announce a new advance in uranium enrichment levels or a formal breach of IAEA monitoring commitments within 30 days

     NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.

6. Wednesday, 23 September 20261 update

   • 03:33Forecast

     ForecastIsrael will conduct or be publicly reported to have conducted a military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-23.

7. Tuesday, 22 September 20261 update

   • 03:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will announce or be confirmed to have advanced uranium enrichment beyond current declared levels within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.

8. Monday, 21 September 20261 update

   • 05:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will announce a confirmed advancement in uranium enrichment capability, such as new centrifuge installation or enrichment beyond 60% purity, within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-10-21.

9. Saturday, 19 September 20262 updates

   • 06:05Resolved

     ResolvedGLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 33%). Data-resolved: GLD moved from 406.75 to 401.17 (-1.37%) during 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-19. Target: above 415. Target not reached. High was 406.56.

   • 03:33Forecast

     ForecastIran will be confirmed by the IAEA or announce enrichment activity that breaches a new escalatory threshold (e.g., stockpile expansion or new enrichment site disclosure) within 30 days.

     NEXUS forecast: 44% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.

10. Thursday, 17 September 20261 update

    • 08:33Forecast

      ForecastThe IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.

11. Wednesday, 16 September 20262 updates

    • 05:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-16.

    • 03:32Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly announce or be confirmed via IAEA reporting to have increased uranium enrichment beyond 90% purity within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-10-16.

12. Tuesday, 15 September 20262 updates

    • 10:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct a new confirmed airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure beyond nuclear-linked facilities within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastBank of America (BAC) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as wartime risk-off credit stress and the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) weigh on financials beyond the recent drawdown (target below $55.90, 6% from $59.47 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 83% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.

13. Monday, 14 September 20262 updates

    • 10:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael or the United States will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear-linked facility or asset within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.

    • 09:33Forecast

      ForecastThe IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 14% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.

14. Sunday, 13 September 20261 update

    • 09:33Forecast

      ForecastThe US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation specifically targeting Iranian oil export networks or shadow-fleet shipping entities within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.

15. Saturday, 12 September 20263 updates

    • 18:33Forecast

      ForecastThe International Atomic Energy Agency or a wire-tier source will report a new confirmed increase in Iran's uranium enrichment capacity or stockpile within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 61% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.

    • 11:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.

    • 08:33Forecast

      Forecast

16. Friday, 11 September 20264 updates

    • 23:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.

      NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.

    • 08:33Forecast

      Forecast

17. Thursday, 10 September 20263 updates

    • 20:34Forecast

      ForecastIran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.

    • 00:34Forecast

      Forecast

18. Wednesday, 9 September 20261 update

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly announce or have confirmed uranium enrichment above 60% purity within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 12% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

19. Tuesday, 8 September 20261 update

    • 14:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly announce an increase in uranium enrichment levels or new centrifuge deployment within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.

20. Monday, 7 September 20266 updates

    • 20:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will formally suspend or restrict IAEA inspector access to at least one declared nuclear facility within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

    • 20:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will close its airspace (in whole or in part) by September 30, 2026, consistent with the wartime regime, zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure, and the 67% Hormuz escalation probability compounding audience-cost pressure ahead of the October 7 anniversary window.

      NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

    • 16:33Forecast

21. Sunday, 6 September 20261 update

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 52% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.

22. Saturday, 5 September 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastGLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

      NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-09-19.

23. Thursday, 27 August 20261 update

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedSPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 15%). Data-resolved: SPY moved from 777.88 to 766.08 (-1.52%) during 2026-08-13 to 2026-08-27. Target: below 745. Target not reached. Low was 762.04.

24. Thursday, 20 August 20261 update

    • 20:00Resolved

      ResolvedGLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents sustain safe-haven demand beyond the current $402.54 level.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 23%). Early-confirmed: GLD hit target above 415 on 2026-08-20. Current price: 415.26 (started at 402.54).

25. Thursday, 13 August 20262 updates

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastSPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

      NEXUS forecast: 15% probability, resolves by 2026-08-27.

    • 06:02Resolved

      ResolvedIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct at least one direct military strike on the other's nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). [basis: absence] Multiple searches (5 differently-phrased queries) covering the full evidence window 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-13 show an active US-Iran war (US airstrikes on Iran, IRGC retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Houthi actions) but NO wire/official-tier report of a DIRE

26. Tuesday, 11 August 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastGLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents sustain safe-haven demand beyond the current $402.54 level.

      NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-08-25.

27. Wednesday, 29 July 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 130 on 2026-07-29. Current price: 130.02 (started at 124.76).

28. Tuesday, 28 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-11.

29. Tuesday, 21 July 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedGLD will close above $372.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as safe-haven demand builds against the zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure and broader wartime risk-off equity positioning.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 17%). Early-confirmed: GLD hit target above 372 on 2026-07-21. Current price: 373.27 (started at 364.96).

30. Friday, 17 July 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastGLD will close above $372.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as safe-haven demand builds against the zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure and broader wartime risk-off equity positioning.

      NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-07-31.

31. Tuesday, 14 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct at least one direct military strike on the other's nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-08-13.

32. Saturday, 20 June 20261 update

    • 00:00Resolved

      ResolvedGold futures (GLD) will close above $410.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) combines with wartime safe haven flows to override technical weakness

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 26%). Data-resolved: GLD moved from 396.25 to 387.12 (-2.30%) during 2026-06-06 to 2026-06-20. Target: above 410. Target not reached. High was 402.04.

33. Saturday, 6 June 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastGold futures (GLD) will close above $410.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) combines with wartime safe haven flows to override technical weakness

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-06-20.

34. Thursday, 4 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedIran will announce at least one nuclear program milestone or development within 14 days of the May 20 Erev Shavuot convergence

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 51%). Searched extensively for Iran nuclear announcements within evidence window (2026-03-06 to 2026-06-03). Found general Iran-related articles but no specific nuclear program milestone or development announcements. Most relevant results were about Iran conflict/war but not nuclear program developments.

35. Monday, 27 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedJapanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade above 1.10% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) drives global bond selloff and BoJ intervention concerns escalate

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 62%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

36. Friday, 24 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedRhodium futures will trade above $4,800 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed oil field attacks and Iran nuclear commitment problems create supply chain disruption fears for automotive catalysts

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 12%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

37. Tuesday, 21 April 20262 updates

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedUranium futures (UX) will gain more than 8% within 30 days as nuclear security concerns from Iran conflict and energy independence priorities drive strategic stockpiling demand

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 45%). UX closed at 30.268999 on March 20 (closest available to March 22 creation). UX current price is 31.5842. Actual gain = ((31.5842 - 30.268999) / 30.268999) * 100 = 4.35%. Direction was correct (up) but magnitude insufficient. Actual: 4.2%, Required: >8%, 4.2% < 8% therefore threshold NOT met

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedIran will make at least one provocative nuclear program announcement within 7 days of the April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 57%). Iran made nuclear-related announcements during the period: April 8 - Iran announced 10-point plan requiring US to accept uranium enrichment and lift all sanctions (Al Arabiya English). This constitutes a provocative nuclear program announcement within the required timeframe. Actual: 1 announcement,

38. Monday, 20 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedEuropean banking stress will manifest with at least 2 major European banks announcing capital preservation measures or dividend suspensions within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) creates systemic risk repricing

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). European bank capital measures March 20 - April 19: Web search found limited banking news but no clear announcements of capital preservation measures or dividend suspensions by major European banks. Articles mention Deutsche Pfandbriefbank losses and Erste Group challenges, but no specific capital p

39. Saturday, 18 April 20261 update

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedCopper-to-silver ratio will decline below 120 within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) drives industrial metals weakness while precious metals gain on conflict hedging

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 39%). WARNING: HG and SI appear to be ETF proxies, not actual commodity futures prices. March 19 copper $28.21, silver $15.05, ratio = 1.87. April 18 copper $32.03, silver $15.00, ratio = 2.14. Ratio increased from 1.87 to 2.14, moving away from target. However, both ratios are far below 120 threshold. Ac

40. Friday, 17 April 20261 update

    • 06:08Resolved

      ResolvedWest Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $130 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Fearon bargaining failure in Iran nuclear scenario creates supply disruption expectations

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). WTI crude oil (CL) price data from 2026-03-18 to 2026-04-17: Highest close was $87.52 on creation date, then declined. Price range: $83.13-$87.52. Never approached $130. Actual peak: $87.52, Required: $130, $87.52 < $130 therefore threshold NOT met. Also failed direction test as oil declined from re

41. Thursday, 16 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedThe CBOE Put/Call Ratio will exceed 1.20 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) drives defensive positioning despite current market complacency at neutral sentiment

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 66%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

42. Sunday, 12 April 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedThe WTI 3x Leveraged ETF position (entry £34.62/unit) will recover above breakeven, with the ETF trading above £34.62 per unit on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as OPEC+ Saudi production cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward oil price pressure consistent with the mixed Nash equilibrium's upside skew

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 75%). Using UCO as WTI 3x leveraged ETF proxy. Entry was £34.62. UCO price history from March 8-April 7 shows multiple days above target: March 12 close $39.87, March 13 close $40.26, March 16 close $39.00, March 17 close $40.86, March 18 close $42.94, March 19 close $41.80, March 20 close $42.95, March 2

43. Saturday, 11 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 56%). Web search found no evidence of G7 sanctions announcements targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within the evidence window 2026-03-27 to 2026-04-10. Found 4 results but none mentioned new sanctions - only peace talks and diplomatic negotiations. Actual: 0 announcements, Required:

44. Friday, 10 April 20262 updates

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one major European bank (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Santander, or UniCredit) will announce credit loss provisions or risk assessment updates related to Middle East or energy sector exposure within 30 days as Iran nuclear instability creates banking sector stress testing

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 19%). No evidence found of major European banks (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Santander, UniCredit) announcing credit loss provisions or risk assessments related to Middle East/energy sector exposure during March 11 - April 10, 2026 period. Web search within evidence window returned 0 results for relevant

    • 01:01Resolved

      ResolvedMalaysian Ringgit (USD/MYR) will trade above 4.75 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint vulnerability during Iran nuclear instability creates currency weakness in the world's narrowest major shipping lane

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 59%). Data-resolved: USD/MYR moved from 3.92 to 3.97 (1.47%) during 2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10. Target: above 4.75. Target not reached. High was 4.05.

45. Wednesday, 8 April 20261 update

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedUSD/JPY will trade below 140.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium games (Iran nuclear, US-China trade) drive safe-haven demand for yen while geopolitical uncertainty reduces carry trade appeal

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Data-resolved: USDJPY moved from 157.82 to 158.74 (0.58%) during 2026-03-09 to 2026-04-08. Target: below 140. Target not reached. Low was 157.28.

46. Tuesday, 7 April 20262 updates

    • 06:08Resolved

      ResolvedThe Japanese yen (JPY) will strengthen against the euro, with EURJPY trading below 158 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as dual risk-off pressures from Taiwan gray-zone escalation and Iran nuclear instability drive safe-haven demand for yen while ECB fragmentation concerns weigh on the euro

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). EURJPY current price on April 7, 2026: 184.305. Historical data shows EURJPY traded consistently above 182 throughout the prediction window from March 8 to April 7, 2026. All daily closes ranged from 182.4579 (March 16) to 184.341 (March 25), with no trading days below 158. Counted trading days belo

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedBitcoin (BTC) will trade above $100,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Hormuz closure risk drive demand for non-sovereign, non-SWIFT settlement assets consistent with the XRP/alternative settlement thesis

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Bitcoin price data from March 8-April 7, 2026 shows highest close was $74,861.09 on March 16. Maximum intraday high was $75,988.40 on March 17. Bitcoin never approached $100,000 during the prediction window, trading primarily in $65,000-$75,000 range. Count of days above $100,000: 0 days. Actual: 0

47. Monday, 6 April 20263 updates

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedAt least 3 OPEC+ member countries will announce emergency production quota reviews or unilateral output decisions within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario and Strait of Hormuz tensions force preemptive market positioning

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 15%). Web search for OPEC+ emergency production quota announcements during March 21-April 4, 2026 returned no results. No evidence found of any OPEC+ member countries announcing emergency production quota reviews or unilateral output decisions during the specified period. Actual announcements: 0, Required

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedThe spread between Brent crude and WTI crude will widen to at least $5/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create asymmetric geopolitical risk premiums in international benchmarks versus domestic US supply cushioned by SPR releases

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 58%). Calculating daily Brent-WTI spreads from price data: March 10: $87.80-$83.45=$4.35, March 11: $91.98-$87.25=$4.73, March 12: $100.46-$95.73=$4.73, March 13: $103.14-$98.71=$4.43. Most trading days showed spreads between $3-5, but none reached $5 or above consistently. The spread actually narrowed in

48. Saturday, 4 April 20262 updates

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedIran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 33%). Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Multiple sources confirm Iranian strikes during the window. BBC reports 'US and Israel attack Iran' (Apr 3), suggesting active conflict. Institute for Study of War provides Iran Updates (Apr 1, Apr 2). New York Times reports '12 U.S. Troops Injured in Attack o

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one G7 country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve releases or coordinated energy security measures within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) and Iran nuclear tensions create dual-theater energy vulnerability

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 39%). Multiple G7 energy security announcements found during March 21-April 4, 2026 evidence window: 1) Japan announced 2nd batch of strategic oil reserves release on March 26, 2026 (Anadolu Ajansı); 2) G7 finance ministers announced coordinated action to stabilize energy markets on March 30-31, 2026 (Nik

49. Friday, 3 April 20261 update

    • 00:02Resolved

      ResolvedIsraeli Shekel (USD/ILS) will strengthen below 3.55 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure paradoxically triggers safe-haven flows into Israeli assets ahead of potential preemptive action

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 10%). Data-resolved: ILS moved from 20.16 to 19.79 (-1.86%) during 2026-03-20 to 2026-04-03. Target: below 3.55. Target not reached. Low was 19.73.

50. Thursday, 2 April 20265 updates

    • 00:04Resolved

      ResolvedOPEC will announce emergency production meeting or unilateral production adjustments within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces energy market intervention

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 54%). No OPEC emergency production meeting or unilateral production adjustments announced within the March 19 to April 2 window. Search results show routine production updates (OPEC crude up 164k bpd in February reported March 11) and general oil market commentary, but no emergency meetings or adjustments

    • 00:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one credible diplomatic engagement between the US and Iran regarding nuclear negotiations will be publicly reported within 14 days of the March 19 Nowruz/Vernal Equinox convergence, consistent with the zero-Nash-equilibrium cooperative outcome that the game theory model projects at 70% confidence but flags as inherently unstable

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 60%). Multiple credible diplomatic engagements publicly reported within the required timeframe: Pakistan mediation talks between US and Iran reported March 24 (Bloomberg: 'Pakistan Seeks to Mediate Talks With US, Iran in Islamabad'), Next Century Foundation proposal for diplomatic action March 25, and Pak

51. Wednesday, 1 April 20261 update

    • 00:02Resolved

      ResolvedAt least 3 OPEC member countries will make public statements regarding production policy within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces coalition positioning ahead of June ministerial

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 34%). Search found 3 articles during evidence window (2026-03-18 to 2026-04-01) related to oil and Iran, including articles from Council on Foreign Relations about oil dependence, and coverage of Israel-Iran tensions. However, none of these articles specifically mention OPEC member countries making public

52. Tuesday, 31 March 20262 updates

    • 00:05Resolved

      ResolvedAt least 2 major Asian shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz route suspensions within 7 days as zero-Nash equilibria scenarios in Iran nuclear talks create insurance premium spikes

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 69%). Search found general shipping disruption reports (Flexport: 'Middle East Escalation Disrupts Global Ocean and Air Freight Networks' March 27; Maersk Red Sea situation update March 27; Arab News on Asian container shipping March 18) but no specific announcements by named major Asian shipping companie

    • 00:05Resolved

      ResolvedLebanon will announce at least one new border security measure or military deployment within 14 days as Hezbollah escalatory operations and Iran nuclear instability create regional spillover risks

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 13%). No evidence found of Lebanon announcing new border security measures or military deployments within the evidence window. Search results showed Syrian border tunnel discoveries, US Pentagon troop deployments to Middle East, and Israeli military issues, but no specific Lebanese government announcement

53. Monday, 30 March 20261 update

    • 00:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one major Asian central bank will announce emergency currency intervention measures within 14 days as Iran nuclear bargaining failure (0% Fearon range) drives safe-haven dollar strength

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 16%). No evidence found of Asian central bank emergency currency intervention measures within the March 16-30 window. Web search returned only 3 filtered results discussing Iran-related economic impacts but no specific announcements of emergency currency interventions by Asian central banks. Required: At

54. Sunday, 29 March 20261 update

    • 01:01Resolved

      ResolvedThe Japanese Yen (USD/JPY) will trade above 160.00 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Iran nuclear negotiations fail and energy import costs pressure the yen amid BOJ policy constraints

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 57%). Early-confirmed: USDJPY hit target above 160 on 2026-03-27, 2026-03-28, 2026-03-29. Current price: 160.28 (started at 158.98).

55. Saturday, 28 March 20262 updates

    • 08:04Forecast

      ForecastIran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

      NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-04-04.

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedNorwegian Krone (NOK/USD) will weaken above 0.115 on at least 2 trading days within 7 days as European energy security fears from Iran Nuclear Breakout scenarios drive safe-haven outflows from energy exporters

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 31%). NOK/USD price data from March 21-28: March 21 high: 0.10467, March 22 high: 0.10461, March 23 high: 0.10450, March 24 high: 0.10359, March 25 high: 0.10335, March 26 high: 0.10384, March 27 high: 0.10350, March 28 high: 0.10304. Highest value was 0.10467 on March 21. Required: above 0.115 on at leas

56. Friday, 27 March 20263 updates

    • 20:04Forecast

      ForecastAt least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

      NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedIsrael will announce closure or restriction of at least one major shipping lane or port facility within 7 days as escalation probability of 53% in Taiwan Strait Crisis and 20% in Iran Nuclear scenario create defensive positioning

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 11%). Web search for 'Israel shipping lane port closure restriction announcement March 20-27 2026' returned 0 results within the evidence window (2026-03-20 to 2026-03-27). No announcements by Israel of shipping lane closures or port facility restrictions were found during the prediction period. Actual: 0

    • 00:03Resolved

57. Thursday, 26 March 20262 updates

    • 00:04Resolved

      ResolvedIran will announce suspension of uranium enrichment activities or accept international monitoring expansion within 7 days as Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence creates diplomatic opening despite Bayesian analysis indicating structural conflict likelihood

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 15%). Search during March 19-26, 2026 evidence window found no reports of Iran announcing suspension of uranium enrichment activities or accepting expanded international monitoring. No relevant articles were found within the prediction timeframe despite searches for Iran nuclear developments, IAEA monitor

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedIran will make at least one public statement regarding nuclear program negotiations within 7 days of the March 19 Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 72%). Multiple Iranian public statements on nuclear negotiations found within the evidence window: March 25, 2026 - Iran 'publicly scoffs at diplomacy' regarding US 15-point plan (ایران اینترنشنال); March 25, 2026 - Iran says 'US talking to itself' regarding diplomatic negotiations (Al Jazeera). Both stat

58. Wednesday, 25 March 20263 updates

    • 01:03Resolved

      ResolvedDXY (US Dollar Index) will close above 107.5 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Taiwan gray-zone tensions drive safe-haven dollar demand despite neutral sentiment readings

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 72%). DXY price history from March 9-23, 2026: Highs reached 100.54 on March 13 and 100.31 on March 18, both below the 107.5 target. Daily closes: 3/9: 99.18, 3/10: 98.83, 3/11: 99.23, 3/12: 99.74, 3/13: 100.36, 3/16: 99.71, 3/17: 99.58, 3/18: 100.09, 3/19: 99.23, 3/20: 99.65, 3/23: 98.95. Maximum close w

    • 00:06Forecast

      ForecastThe CBOE Put/Call Ratio will exceed 1.20 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) drives defensive positioning despite current market complacency at neutral sentiment

      NEXUS forecast: 66% probability, resolves by 2026-04-08.

    • 00:05

59. Tuesday, 24 March 20262 updates

    • 02:54Forecast

      ForecastAt least 2 major Asian shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Strait of Hormuz route suspensions within 7 days as zero-Nash equilibria scenarios in Iran nuclear talks create insurance premium spikes

      NEXUS forecast: 69% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.

    • 00:03Resolved

      ResolvedIran will announce at least one major military deployment or defense infrastructure expansion within 7 days as nuclear breakout game theory reaches zero Nash equilibrium

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 31%). Multiple military announcements found within March 17-24 window: CBS News March 20 reported Iran military says Strait of Hormuz will be 'completely closed' if U.S. delivers on threat - this constitutes a major military deployment announcement. Additional evidence of ongoing military infrastructure d

60. Monday, 23 March 20261 update

    • 00:02Resolved

      ResolvedDeutsche Bank (DB) will close below $16.50 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European banking stress from potential Iran sanctions escalation creates sector-wide pressure

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 72%). Data-resolved: DB moved from 31.60 to 28.47 (-9.91%) during 2026-03-09 to 2026-03-23. Target: below 16.5. Target not reached. Low was 28.20.

61. Sunday, 22 March 20263 updates

    • 03:03Resolved

      ResolvedIran will announce suspension or withdrawal from nuclear talks within 72 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox/Nowruz convergence window

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 58%). Searched comprehensively for Iran nuclear talks announcements around March 19-22, 2026. Found extensive coverage of Iran-US tensions, conflicts, and nuclear talks in late February/early March 2026, including Khamenei's death on Feb 28 and various diplomatic developments, but no evidence of Iran anno

    • 00:03Forecast

      ForecastUranium futures (UX) will gain more than 8% within 30 days as nuclear security concerns from Iran conflict and energy independence priorities drive strategic stockpiling demand

      NEXUS forecast: 45% probability, resolves by 2026-04-21.

    • 00:01Resolved

62. Saturday, 21 March 20263 updates

    • 20:03Forecast

      ForecastAt least 3 OPEC+ member countries will announce emergency production quota reviews or unilateral output decisions within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario and Strait of Hormuz tensions force preemptive market positioning

      NEXUS forecast: 15% probability, resolves by 2026-04-04.

    • 04:36Forecast

      ForecastAt least one G7 country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve releases or coordinated energy security measures within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) and Iran nuclear tensions create dual-theater energy vulnerability

      NEXUS forecast: 39% probability, resolves by 2026-04-04.

    • 04:29Forecast

63. Friday, 20 March 20265 updates

    • 16:27Forecast

      ForecastJapanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade above 1.10% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) drives global bond selloff and BoJ intervention concerns escalate

      NEXUS forecast: 62% probability, resolves by 2026-04-19.

    • 12:03Forecast

      ForecastAt least one major international shipping company will announce Red Sea route suspension or additional security surcharges within 7 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) escalates regional maritime risks

      NEXUS forecast: 50% probability, resolves by 2026-03-27.

    • 03:11Forecast

64. Thursday, 19 March 20266 updates

    • 22:20Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce suspension of uranium enrichment activities or accept international monitoring expansion within 7 days as Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence creates diplomatic opening despite Bayesian analysis indicating structural conflict likelihood

      NEXUS forecast: 15% probability, resolves by 2026-03-26.

    • 07:42Forecast

      ForecastOPEC will announce emergency production meeting or unilateral production adjustments within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces energy market intervention

      NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-04-02.

    • 07:07Forecast

65. Wednesday, 18 March 20264 updates

    • 23:15Forecast

      ForecastWest Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $130 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Fearon bargaining failure in Iran nuclear scenario creates supply disruption expectations

      NEXUS forecast: 10% probability, resolves by 2026-04-17.

    • 21:54Forecast

      ForecastAt least 3 OPEC member countries will make public statements regarding production policy within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces coalition positioning ahead of June ministerial

      NEXUS forecast: 34% probability, resolves by 2026-04-01.

    • 13:25Forecast

66. Tuesday, 17 March 20263 updates

    • 03:44Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce at least one major military deployment or defense infrastructure expansion within 7 days as nuclear breakout game theory reaches zero Nash equilibrium

      NEXUS forecast: 31% probability, resolves by 2026-03-24.

    • 01:05Forecast

      ForecastLebanon will announce at least one new border security measure or military deployment within 14 days as Hezbollah escalatory operations and Iran nuclear instability create regional spillover risks

      NEXUS forecast: 13% probability, resolves by 2026-03-31.

    • 01:05Forecast

      Forecast

67. Monday, 16 March 20261 update

    • 16:03Forecast

      ForecastAt least one major Asian central bank will announce emergency currency intervention measures within 14 days as Iran nuclear bargaining failure (0% Fearon range) drives safe-haven dollar strength

      NEXUS forecast: 16% probability, resolves by 2026-03-30.

68. Sunday, 15 March 20261 update

    • 22:41Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce at least one new naval exercise or military deployment in the Persian Gulf region within 7 days as the Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window opens with zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations

      NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-03-22.

69. Wednesday, 11 March 20262 updates

    • 05:39Forecast

      ForecastMalaysian Ringgit (USD/MYR) will trade above 4.75 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint vulnerability during Iran nuclear instability creates currency weakness in the world's narrowest major shipping lane

      NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.

    • 05:39Forecast

      ForecastAt least one major European bank (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Santander, or UniCredit) will announce credit loss provisions or risk assessment updates related to Middle East or energy sector exposure within 30 days as Iran nuclear instability creates banking sector stress testing

      NEXUS forecast: 19% probability, resolves by 2026-04-10.

70. Monday, 9 March 20263 updates

    • 19:22Forecast

      ForecastDeutsche Bank (DB) will close below $16.50 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as European banking stress from potential Iran sanctions escalation creates sector-wide pressure

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-03-23.

    • 14:41Forecast

      ForecastDXY (US Dollar Index) will close above 107.5 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Taiwan gray-zone tensions drive safe-haven dollar demand despite neutral sentiment readings

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-03-23.

    • 14:13Forecast

71. Sunday, 8 March 20264 updates

    • 07:59Forecast

      ForecastThe Japanese yen (JPY) will strengthen against the euro, with EURJPY trading below 158 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as dual risk-off pressures from Taiwan gray-zone escalation and Iran nuclear instability drive safe-haven demand for yen while ECB fragmentation concerns weigh on the euro

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.

    • 05:59Forecast

      ForecastBitcoin (BTC) will trade above $100,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Hormuz closure risk drive demand for non-sovereign, non-SWIFT settlement assets consistent with the XRP/alternative settlement thesis

      NEXUS forecast: 72% probability, resolves by 2026-04-07.

    • 03:56Forecast

72. Saturday, 7 March 20262 updates

    • 23:22Forecast

      ForecastThe spread between Brent crude and WTI crude will widen to at least $5/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create asymmetric geopolitical risk premiums in international benchmarks versus domestic US supply cushioned by SPR releases

      NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.

    • 23:06Forecast

      ForecastBrent crude oil will trade above $82/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward price pressure without a full supply shock

      NEXUS forecast: 60% probability, resolves by 2026-04-06.