Iran nuclear talks and sanctions

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1. Wednesday, 14 October 20263 updates

   • 07:20Odds

     OddsPolymarket: "Will Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani attend a US x Iran diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?" at 30%

     Polymarket

     First tracked price for this market.

   • 04:16Resolved

     ResolvedIsrael will conduct a direct military strike on Iranian nuclear-related infrastructure within 30 days.

     Resolved as a miss (forecast at 51%). [basis: absence] Two differently phrased searches for Israel striking Iranian nuclear facilities during September 7–October 7, 2026 yielded no dated confirmation of a completed Israeli strike on nuclear-related infrastructure. Results instead included an October 7 U.S. News explainer on Iran enrichm

   • 00:15Resolved

     ResolvedIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

     Resolved as expired (forecast at 52%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation evidence.

2. Tuesday, 13 October 20263 updates

   • 17:00News

     NewsChina's $3 Billion Qatar LNG Deal Raises an Awkward Question

     OilPrice

     Qatar's highly sensitive geographical positioning -- between a western land border with Saudi Arabia and a northeastern maritime border with Iran -- has necessitated it treading a delicate diplomatic

   • 11:53News

     NewsIran reportedly fortifies nuclear sites as it prepares for possible U.S. strikes after midterms

     CNBC

   • 10:08News

     News

3. Monday, 12 October 20265 updates

   • 23:27News

     NewsUK blames Iran for airbase plot, sanctions two Iranian nationals - Al Jazeera

     Al Jazeera

   • 18:51News

     NewsUK blames Iran for airbase plot, sanctions two Iranian nationals

     Al Jazeera

   • 15:52News

4. Sunday, 11 October 20261 update

   • 10:46News

     NewsTrump and Iran both say US Midterm Elections not a factor in peace talks - Fox News

     Fox News

5. Saturday, 10 October 20262 updates

   • 12:23News

     NewsTrump says he stopped Iran from obtaining nuclear weapon and 'blowing up' Middle East - Fox News

     Fox News

   • 00:00News

     NewsIran war live: Kremlin says Trump welcomed Russia's effort in Iran deal

     Al Jazeera

6. Friday, 9 October 20262 updates

   • 16:20Odds

     OddsPolymarket: "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?" at 2%

     Polymarket

     First tracked price for this market.

   • 12:18News

     NewsLive Updates: Putin relays Iran's position on peace deal to President Trump - CBS News

     CBS News

7. Thursday, 8 October 20269 updates

   • 20:09News

     NewsChris Murphy says Iran deal not 'imminent' after meeting Qatari diplomat

     Washington Examiner

   • 17:13News

     NewsTreasury sanctions 17 tankers linked to Iran's 'shadow fleet' in economic pressure campaign

     CNBC

   • 13:20Odds

     OddsPolymarket: "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?" at 14%

8. Wednesday, 7 October 20265 updates

   • 21:00News

     NewsIran War Pushes 25 Countries Into New Electrification Policies

     OilPrice

     Electrification has become the focus of global climate talks as COP31 draws closer. We already have the technologies to transition away from direct consumption of fossil fuels and toward electricity i

   • 10:58News

     NewsUS sets new demands for Iran deal: What are they?

     Al Jazeera

   • 10:14News

     News

9. Monday, 5 October 20263 updates

   • 21:00News

     NewsSingapore Eyes Nuclear Power as Iran War Exposes Its Import Problem

     OilPrice

     Singapore is in an energy pickle. The island nation is still reeling from high oil and gas prices driven by the war in Iran, and is scrambling to build up alternative and indigenous energy sources. Th

   • 04:01News

     NewsU.S. Sanctions Aim to 'Shut Down' Iran's Airlines, but This Boeing Plane Is Still Flying

     New York Times

     The Trump administration says all Iranian airlines are being "shut down." So why is this jumbo jet still flying from Tehran to Southeast Asia?

   • 00:15Resolved

10. Sunday, 4 October 20265 updates

    • 21:23News

      NewsIranian leaders focus on diplomatic talks as U.S. adds more military muscle, prepares for escalation

      Washington Times

      Iranian officials on Sunday signaled that peace negotiations with the U.S. are continuing, even as Washington prepares for a potential escalation in the war later this year and Iran-backed Houthi rebe

    • 19:44News

      NewsIran tells US there is no military solution to war as talks hit impasse

      SCMP

      Iran's top diplomat insisted on Sunday that there would be no military solution to the United States' war against the Islamic republic, with talks on ending the conflict apparently at an impasse. A ca

    • 18:47

11. Friday, 2 October 20264 updates

    • 22:53News

      NewsIran Jails Hard-Line Lawmaker, Exposing Deep Rifts in Its Leadership

      New York Times

      Hamid Rasaei, a vocal opponent of a diplomatic deal with the United States to end the war, was convicted of publishing false information with the intent to harm the Parliament speaker.

    • 19:00News

      NewsIranian Oil Starts Flowing to Tajikistan Despite U.S. Sanctions Risk

      OilPrice

      Tajikistan announced that it is now receiving oil and petroleum products from Iran, opening a potential new energy source for a country whose fuel supplies have long been dominated by Russia. The deli

    • 04:34News

12. Thursday, 1 October 20265 updates

    • 21:20News

      NewsUS sanctions Kremlin-backed fintech A7 for allegedly assisting Iran - Financial Times

      Financial Times

    • 19:20Odds

      OddsPolymarket: "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?" at 14%

      Polymarket

      First tracked price for this market.

    • 17:11News

      News

13. Wednesday, 30 September 20265 updates

    • 17:20Odds

      OddsPolymarket: "US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?" at 3%

      Polymarket

      First tracked price for this market.

    • 14:01News

      NewsIran's nuclear program remains shrouded in mystery as the regime debates ditching non-proliferation

      Deutsche Welle

      Iran's nuclear program is entering a critical phase as Tehran debates dropping out of a nuclear non-proliferation treaty. Satellite images also show activity at known nuclear sites.

    • 07:12News

14. Tuesday, 29 September 202614 updates

    • 21:00Resolved

      ResolvedBank of America (BAC) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as wartime risk-off credit stress and the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) weigh on financials beyond the recent drawdown (target below $55.90, 6% from $59.47 at creation)

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 83%). Early-confirmed: BAC, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-15 through 2026-10-15. Target: below 55.9. Target hit on: 2026-09-28. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

    • 20:48News

      NewsUS sanctions 10 entities for allegedly supporting Iran's military

      Al Jazeera

    • 18:20Odds

15. Monday, 28 September 20268 updates

    • 22:47News

      NewsTrump demands Axios pull 'hoax' story about Iran sanctions relief

      Washington Examiner

    • 22:13News

      NewsIran officials renew call for deal to open Hormuz despite Trump's peace plan rejection

      Washington Times

      Iran's foreign minister met with mediators on Monday in New York City to review the latest proposals from both sides and exchange views about the current state of his country's war with the U.S. and I

    • 20:31News

16. Sunday, 27 September 20266 updates

    • 22:25News

      NewsOil gains over 3% as US-Iran peace talks in stalemate - Reuters

      Reuters

    • 17:42News

      NewsMike Waltz: US offered to sell Iran uranium for civilian programme

      Al Jazeera

    • 15:26News

      News

17. Friday, 25 September 20262 updates

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly reject or suspend cooperation with IAEA-mediated nuclear negotiations within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.

    • 03:34Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce a formal breach of IAEA safeguards or enrichment escalation beyond current thresholds within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 32% probability, resolves by 2026-10-25.

18. Thursday, 24 September 20261 update

    • 02:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce a new advance in uranium enrichment levels or a formal breach of IAEA monitoring commitments within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 51% probability, resolves by 2026-10-24.

19. Wednesday, 23 September 20261 update

    • 03:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct or be publicly reported to have conducted a military strike on Iranian nuclear infrastructure within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-23.

20. Tuesday, 22 September 20261 update

    • 03:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce or be confirmed to have advanced uranium enrichment beyond current declared levels within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 49% probability, resolves by 2026-10-22.

21. Monday, 21 September 20261 update

    • 05:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce a confirmed advancement in uranium enrichment capability, such as new centrifuge installation or enrichment beyond 60% purity, within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-10-21.

22. Saturday, 19 September 20262 updates

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedGLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 33%). Data-resolved: GLD moved from 406.75 to 401.17 (-1.37%) during 2026-09-05 to 2026-09-19. Target: above 415. Target not reached. High was 406.56.

    • 03:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will be confirmed by the IAEA or announce enrichment activity that breaches a new escalatory threshold (e.g., stockpile expansion or new enrichment site disclosure) within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 44% probability, resolves by 2026-10-19.

23. Thursday, 17 September 20261 update

    • 08:33Forecast

      ForecastThe IAEA or a major intelligence source will report a new significant escalation in Iran's nuclear program, such as enrichment beyond agreed thresholds or restricted inspector access, within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-17.

24. Wednesday, 16 September 20262 updates

    • 05:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct a new confirmed airstrike specifically targeting an Iranian nuclear-linked facility within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-16.

    • 03:32Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly announce or be confirmed via IAEA reporting to have increased uranium enrichment beyond 90% purity within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-10-16.

25. Tuesday, 15 September 20262 updates

    • 10:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct a new confirmed airstrike targeting Iranian military infrastructure beyond nuclear-linked facilities within 30 days

      NEXUS forecast: 85% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastBank of America (BAC) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as wartime risk-off credit stress and the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) weigh on financials beyond the recent drawdown (target below $55.90, 6% from $59.47 at creation)

      NEXUS forecast: 83% probability, resolves by 2026-10-15.

26. Monday, 14 September 20262 updates

    • 10:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael or the United States will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear-linked facility or asset within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 54% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.

    • 09:33Forecast

      ForecastThe IAEA will report that Iran has enriched uranium beyond the 60% purity threshold, a new escalation marker, within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 14% probability, resolves by 2026-10-14.

27. Sunday, 13 September 20261 update

    • 09:33Forecast

      ForecastThe US Treasury or OFAC will announce a new sanctions designation specifically targeting Iranian oil export networks or shadow-fleet shipping entities within 14 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 27% probability, resolves by 2026-09-27.

28. Saturday, 12 September 20263 updates

    • 18:33Forecast

      ForecastThe International Atomic Energy Agency or a wire-tier source will report a new confirmed increase in Iran's uranium enrichment capacity or stockpile within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 61% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.

    • 11:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct a confirmed military strike against an Iranian nuclear facility within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 56% probability, resolves by 2026-10-12.

    • 08:33Forecast

      Forecast

29. Friday, 11 September 20264 updates

    • 23:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will announce a new uranium enrichment escalation measure (raising enrichment levels or restricting IAEA inspector access) within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 25% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.

    • 16:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will conduct or publicly acknowledge a military strike against Iranian nuclear or IRGC-linked infrastructure within 30 days, separate from any US-attributed action.

      NEXUS forecast: 59% probability, resolves by 2026-10-11.

    • 08:33Forecast

      Forecast

30. Thursday, 10 September 20263 updates

    • 20:34Forecast

      ForecastIran will formally suspend or terminate participation in nuclear negotiations with the IAEA or E3 group within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 58% probability, resolves by 2026-10-10.

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-01.

    • 00:34Forecast

      Forecast

31. Wednesday, 9 September 20261 update

    • 07:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly announce or have confirmed uranium enrichment above 60% purity within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 12% probability, resolves by 2026-10-09.

32. Tuesday, 8 September 20261 update

    • 14:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will publicly announce an increase in uranium enrichment levels or new centrifuge deployment within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-10-08.

33. Monday, 7 September 20266 updates

    • 20:33Forecast

      ForecastIran will formally suspend or restrict IAEA inspector access to at least one declared nuclear facility within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 53% probability, resolves by 2026-10-07.

    • 20:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael will close its airspace (in whole or in part) by September 30, 2026, consistent with the wartime regime, zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure, and the 67% Hormuz escalation probability compounding audience-cost pressure ahead of the October 7 anniversary window.

      NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-09-30.

    • 16:33Forecast

34. Sunday, 6 September 20261 update

    • 15:33Forecast

      ForecastIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct a new direct military strike on the other's nuclear or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 52% probability, resolves by 2026-10-06.

35. Saturday, 5 September 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastGLD will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days, extending safe-haven demand as the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range remains at 0% (structural conflict conditions) amid the confirmed wartime risk-off regime.

      NEXUS forecast: 33% probability, resolves by 2026-09-19.

36. Thursday, 27 August 20261 update

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedSPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 15%). Data-resolved: SPY moved from 777.88 to 766.08 (-1.52%) during 2026-08-13 to 2026-08-27. Target: below 745. Target not reached. Low was 762.04.

37. Thursday, 20 August 20261 update

    • 20:00Resolved

      ResolvedGLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents sustain safe-haven demand beyond the current $402.54 level.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 23%). Early-confirmed: GLD hit target above 415 on 2026-08-20. Current price: 415.26 (started at 402.54).

38. Thursday, 13 August 20262 updates

    • 15:03Forecast

      ForecastSPY will close below $745.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as wartime risk-off conditions (Fear & Greed 38, confirmed Hormuz disruption, zero-bargaining-range Iran-nuclear Fearon failure) extend the equity drawdown beyond the current oversold bounce.

      NEXUS forecast: 15% probability, resolves by 2026-08-27.

    • 06:02Resolved

      ResolvedIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct at least one direct military strike on the other's nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 20%). [basis: absence] Multiple searches (5 differently-phrased queries) covering the full evidence window 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-13 show an active US-Iran war (US airstrikes on Iran, IRGC retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Houthi actions) but NO wire/official-tier report of a DIRE

39. Tuesday, 11 August 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastGLD (SPDR Gold Shares) will close above $415.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as continued Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and confirmed Hormuz mine/seizure incidents sustain safe-haven demand beyond the current $402.54 level.

      NEXUS forecast: 23% probability, resolves by 2026-08-25.

40. Wednesday, 29 July 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 5%). Early-confirmed: USO hit target above 130 on 2026-07-29. Current price: 130.02 (started at 124.76).

41. Tuesday, 28 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastUSO (United States Oil Fund) will close above $130.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as the Strait of Hormuz Fearon bargaining range remains fragile (50%, 67% escalation probability) and Iran nuclear zero-bargaining-range failure sustains upward oil price momentum already evidenced by the +5.9% move from $117.79 to $124.76 in the prior 14-day window.

      NEXUS forecast: 5% probability, resolves by 2026-08-11.

42. Tuesday, 21 July 20261 update

    • 15:00Resolved

      ResolvedGLD will close above $372.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as safe-haven demand builds against the zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure and broader wartime risk-off equity positioning.

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 17%). Early-confirmed: GLD hit target above 372 on 2026-07-21. Current price: 373.27 (started at 364.96).

43. Friday, 17 July 20261 update

    • 06:01Forecast

      ForecastGLD will close above $372.00 on at least one trading day within 14 days as safe-haven demand builds against the zero-bargaining-range Iran nuclear Fearon failure and broader wartime risk-off equity positioning.

      NEXUS forecast: 17% probability, resolves by 2026-07-31.

44. Tuesday, 14 July 20261 update

    • 06:02Forecast

      ForecastIsrael or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct at least one direct military strike on the other's nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure within 30 days.

      NEXUS forecast: 20% probability, resolves by 2026-08-13.

45. Saturday, 20 June 20261 update

    • 00:00Resolved

      ResolvedGold futures (GLD) will close above $410.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) combines with wartime safe haven flows to override technical weakness

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 26%). Data-resolved: GLD moved from 396.25 to 387.12 (-2.30%) during 2026-06-06 to 2026-06-20. Target: above 410. Target not reached. High was 402.04.

46. Saturday, 6 June 20261 update

    • 06:05Forecast

      ForecastGold futures (GLD) will close above $410.00 on at least 3 trading days within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) combines with wartime safe haven flows to override technical weakness

      NEXUS forecast: 26% probability, resolves by 2026-06-20.

47. Thursday, 4 June 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedIran will announce at least one nuclear program milestone or development within 14 days of the May 20 Erev Shavuot convergence

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 51%). Searched extensively for Iran nuclear announcements within evidence window (2026-03-06 to 2026-06-03). Found general Iran-related articles but no specific nuclear program milestone or development announcements. Most relevant results were about Iran conflict/war but not nuclear program developments.

48. Monday, 27 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedJapanese Government Bond 10-year yield (JGB10Y) will trade above 1.10% on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon failure (0% bargaining range) drives global bond selloff and BoJ intervention concerns escalate

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 62%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

49. Friday, 24 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedRhodium futures will trade above $4,800 per ounce on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as confirmed oil field attacks and Iran nuclear commitment problems create supply chain disruption fears for automotive catalysts

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 12%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

50. Tuesday, 21 April 20262 updates

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedUranium futures (UX) will gain more than 8% within 30 days as nuclear security concerns from Iran conflict and energy independence priorities drive strategic stockpiling demand

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 45%). UX closed at 30.268999 on March 20 (closest available to March 22 creation). UX current price is 31.5842. Actual gain = ((31.5842 - 30.268999) / 30.268999) * 100 = 4.35%. Direction was correct (up) but magnitude insufficient. Actual: 4.2%, Required: >8%, 4.2% < 8% therefore threshold NOT met

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedIran will make at least one provocative nuclear program announcement within 7 days of the April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 57%). Iran made nuclear-related announcements during the period: April 8 - Iran announced 10-point plan requiring US to accept uranium enrichment and lift all sanctions (Al Arabiya English). This constitutes a provocative nuclear program announcement within the required timeframe. Actual: 1 announcement,

51. Monday, 20 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedEuropean banking stress will manifest with at least 2 major European banks announcing capital preservation measures or dividend suspensions within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) creates systemic risk repricing

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 25%). European bank capital measures March 20 - April 19: Web search found limited banking news but no clear announcements of capital preservation measures or dividend suspensions by major European banks. Articles mention Deutsche Pfandbriefbank losses and Erste Group challenges, but no specific capital p

52. Saturday, 18 April 20261 update

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedCopper-to-silver ratio will decline below 120 within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) drives industrial metals weakness while precious metals gain on conflict hedging

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 39%). WARNING: HG and SI appear to be ETF proxies, not actual commodity futures prices. March 19 copper $28.21, silver $15.05, ratio = 1.87. April 18 copper $32.03, silver $15.00, ratio = 2.14. Ratio increased from 1.87 to 2.14, moving away from target. However, both ratios are far below 120 threshold. Ac

53. Friday, 17 April 20261 update

    • 06:08Resolved

      ResolvedWest Texas Intermediate crude oil will trade above $130 per barrel on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as Fearon bargaining failure in Iran nuclear scenario creates supply disruption expectations

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 10%). WTI crude oil (CL) price data from 2026-03-18 to 2026-04-17: Highest close was $87.52 on creation date, then declined. Price range: $83.13-$87.52. Never approached $130. Actual peak: $87.52, Required: $130, $87.52 < $130 therefore threshold NOT met. Also failed direction test as oil declined from re

54. Thursday, 16 April 20261 update

    • 06:03Resolved

      ResolvedThe CBOE Put/Call Ratio will exceed 1.20 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) drives defensive positioning despite current market complacency at neutral sentiment

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 66%). Auto-expired: 7+ days past deadline without confirmation.

55. Sunday, 12 April 20261 update

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedThe WTI 3x Leveraged ETF position (entry £34.62/unit) will recover above breakeven, with the ETF trading above £34.62 per unit on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as OPEC+ Saudi production cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward oil price pressure consistent with the mixed Nash equilibrium's upside skew

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 75%). Using UCO as WTI 3x leveraged ETF proxy. Entry was £34.62. UCO price history from March 8-April 7 shows multiple days above target: March 12 close $39.87, March 13 close $40.26, March 16 close $39.00, March 17 close $40.86, March 18 close $42.94, March 19 close $41.80, March 20 close $42.95, March 2

56. Saturday, 11 April 20261 update

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 56%). Web search found no evidence of G7 sanctions announcements targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within the evidence window 2026-03-27 to 2026-04-10. Found 4 results but none mentioned new sanctions - only peace talks and diplomatic negotiations. Actual: 0 announcements, Required:

57. Friday, 10 April 20262 updates

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one major European bank (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Santander, or UniCredit) will announce credit loss provisions or risk assessment updates related to Middle East or energy sector exposure within 30 days as Iran nuclear instability creates banking sector stress testing

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 19%). No evidence found of major European banks (Deutsche Bank, BNP Paribas, Santander, UniCredit) announcing credit loss provisions or risk assessments related to Middle East/energy sector exposure during March 11 - April 10, 2026 period. Web search within evidence window returned 0 results for relevant

    • 01:01Resolved

      ResolvedMalaysian Ringgit (USD/MYR) will trade above 4.75 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as Strait of Malacca chokepoint vulnerability during Iran nuclear instability creates currency weakness in the world's narrowest major shipping lane

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 59%). Data-resolved: USD/MYR moved from 3.92 to 3.97 (1.47%) during 2026-03-11 to 2026-04-10. Target: above 4.75. Target not reached. High was 4.05.

58. Wednesday, 8 April 20261 update

    • 00:01Resolved

      ResolvedUSD/JPY will trade below 140.00 on at least 2 trading days within 30 days as multiple zero-Nash-equilibrium games (Iran nuclear, US-China trade) drive safe-haven demand for yen while geopolitical uncertainty reduces carry trade appeal

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Data-resolved: USDJPY moved from 157.82 to 158.74 (0.58%) during 2026-03-09 to 2026-04-08. Target: below 140. Target not reached. Low was 157.28.

59. Tuesday, 7 April 20262 updates

    • 06:08Resolved

      ResolvedThe Japanese yen (JPY) will strengthen against the euro, with EURJPY trading below 158 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days, as dual risk-off pressures from Taiwan gray-zone escalation and Iran nuclear instability drive safe-haven demand for yen while ECB fragmentation concerns weigh on the euro

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). EURJPY current price on April 7, 2026: 184.305. Historical data shows EURJPY traded consistently above 182 throughout the prediction window from March 8 to April 7, 2026. All daily closes ranged from 182.4579 (March 16) to 184.341 (March 25), with no trading days below 158. Counted trading days belo

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedBitcoin (BTC) will trade above $100,000 on at least 3 trading days within 30 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Hormuz closure risk drive demand for non-sovereign, non-SWIFT settlement assets consistent with the XRP/alternative settlement thesis

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 72%). Bitcoin price data from March 8-April 7, 2026 shows highest close was $74,861.09 on March 16. Maximum intraday high was $75,988.40 on March 17. Bitcoin never approached $100,000 during the prediction window, trading primarily in $65,000-$75,000 range. Count of days above $100,000: 0 days. Actual: 0

60. Monday, 6 April 20263 updates

    • 06:07Resolved

      ResolvedAt least 3 OPEC+ member countries will announce emergency production quota reviews or unilateral output decisions within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario and Strait of Hormuz tensions force preemptive market positioning

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 15%). Web search for OPEC+ emergency production quota announcements during March 21-April 4, 2026 returned no results. No evidence found of any OPEC+ member countries announcing emergency production quota reviews or unilateral output decisions during the specified period. Actual announcements: 0, Required

    • 06:06Resolved

      ResolvedThe spread between Brent crude and WTI crude will widen to at least $5/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create asymmetric geopolitical risk premiums in international benchmarks versus domestic US supply cushioned by SPR releases

      Resolved as a miss (forecast at 58%). Calculating daily Brent-WTI spreads from price data: March 10: $87.80-$83.45=$4.35, March 11: $91.98-$87.25=$4.73, March 12: $100.46-$95.73=$4.73, March 13: $103.14-$98.71=$4.43. Most trading days showed spreads between $3-5, but none reached $5 or above consistently. The spread actually narrowed in

61. Saturday, 4 April 20262 updates

    • 06:05Resolved

      ResolvedIran will conduct at least one additional ballistic missile strike against US or Israeli targets within 7 days as zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations and active conflict momentum drive escalatory responses

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 33%). Evidence Window March 28-April 4, 2026: Multiple sources confirm Iranian strikes during the window. BBC reports 'US and Israel attack Iran' (Apr 3), suggesting active conflict. Institute for Study of War provides Iran Updates (Apr 1, Apr 2). New York Times reports '12 U.S. Troops Injured in Attack o

    • 06:04Resolved

      ResolvedAt least one G7 country will announce emergency strategic petroleum reserve releases or coordinated energy security measures within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) and Iran nuclear tensions create dual-theater energy vulnerability

      Resolved as a hit (forecast at 39%). Multiple G7 energy security announcements found during March 21-April 4, 2026 evidence window: 1) Japan announced 2nd batch of strategic oil reserves release on March 26, 2026 (Anadolu Ajansı); 2) G7 finance ministers announced coordinated action to stabilize energy markets on March 30-31, 2026 (Nik

62. Friday, 3 April 20261 update

    • 00:02Resolved

      ResolvedIsraeli Shekel (USD/ILS) will strengthen below 3.55 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure paradoxically triggers safe-haven flows into Israeli assets ahead of potential preemptive action

      Resolved as a partial (forecast at 10%). Data-resolved: ILS moved from 20.16 to 19.79 (-1.86%) during 2026-03-20 to 2026-04-03. Target: below 3.55. Target not reached. Low was 19.73.