MISSBrier 0.026

No evidence found of Asian central bank emergency currency intervention measures within the March 16-30 window. Web search returned only 3 filtered results discussing Iran-related economic impacts but no specific announcements of emergency currency interventions by Asian central banks. Required: At least 1 major Asian central bank announcing emergency currency intervention. Actual: 0 announcements found. 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major Asian central bank will announce emergency currency intervention measures within 14 days as Iran nuclear bargaining failure (0% Fearon range) drives safe-haven dollar strength

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 16% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-30. Brier score 0.026.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis showing Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure) and 20% escalation probability. Base rate for defense cooperation announcements is 25% per month, adjusted down for emergency measures.

Probability: 16%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 30183d ago
Made: Mar 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Afghanistan will announce at least one retaliatory military action or diplomatic protest within 7 days following Pakistan's documented cross-border airstrikes

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At least one ASEAN member nation will announce new naval security measures or maritime cooperation agreements within 14 days as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation (53% probability) threatens South China Sea shipping lanes

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At least one major Asian central bank will announce emergency currency intervention measures within 14 days as Iran nuclear bargaining failure (0% Fearon range) drives safe-haven dollar strength

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