MISSBrier 0.056

No evidence found of EU member states announcing new strategic defense spending increases or NATO contribution commitments within the March 16-30 window. Web search returned only 2 filtered results: one about Pakistani ships in Hormuz strait and one general NATO article from March 16. No specific announcements of new defense spending increases or NATO commitments by EU member states. Required: At least 1 EU member state announcement. Actual: 0 announcements found. 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one European Union member state will announce new strategic defense spending increases or NATO contribution commitments within 14 days as cross-border military operations between Pakistan and Afghanistan demonstrate regional conflict escalation risks

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-16 at 24% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-30. Brier score 0.056.

Derived from: Actor intelligence shows active military conflict between Pakistan and Afghanistan with cross-border airstrikes. NATO intelligence update indicates internal strain with 'potential collapse risks'. Base rate for defense cooperation announcements is 25% per month, adjusted downward due to overconfidence pattern in geopolitical category (Brier 0.262, 0% confirmed rate).

Probability: 24%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 30183d ago
Made: Mar 16

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

Afghanistan will announce at least one retaliatory military action or diplomatic protest within 7 days following Pakistan's documented cross-border airstrikes

geopolitical17%HIT

Pakistan will announce at least one cross-border military operation or diplomatic escalation measure within 14 days as actor intelligence shows active armed conflict with Afghanistan requiring sustained military response

geopolitical17%HIT

European Union will announce at least one new strategic defense spending initiative or NATO contribution increase within 30 days as alliance stability concerns drive preemptive commitments

geopolitical

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At least one European Union member state will announce new strategic defense spending increases or NATO contribution commitments within 14 days as cross-border military operations between Pakistan and Afghanistan demonstrate regional conflict escalation risks

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