PARTIALBrier 0.518

DXY price history from March 9-23, 2026: Highs reached 100.54 on March 13 and 100.31 on March 18, both below the 107.5 target. Daily closes: 3/9: 99.18, 3/10: 98.83, 3/11: 99.23, 3/12: 99.74, 3/13: 100.36, 3/16: 99.71, 3/17: 99.58, 3/18: 100.09, 3/19: 99.23, 3/20: 99.65, 3/23: 98.95. Maximum close was 100.36, far below 107.5 target. Required: DXY above 107.5 on at least 2 days. Actual: 0 days above 107.5. 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met. Direction was correct as DXY showed upward movement from 99.18 to peak of 100.36.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Market

LONG correctDXY

DXY (US Dollar Index) will close above 107.5 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the zero-Nash-equilibrium Iran nuclear game and Taiwan gray-zone tensions drive safe-haven dollar demand despite neutral sentiment readings

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-09 at 72% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.518.

Derived from: Zero Nash equilibria in Iran-nuclear game theory scenario creates structural instability, while Taiwan gray-zone escalation most likely outcome drives flight-to-quality flows despite Fear/Greed neutrality at 50

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 23190d ago
Made: Mar 9

Price Target$107.5

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