Iran will announce a confirmed advancement in uranium enrichment capability, such as new centrifuge installation or enrichment beyond 60% purity, within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-21.

Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows a Fearon bargaining failure (0% range), structurally favoring escalatory Iranian moves independent of the separate naval-harassment/ceasefire predictions already pending.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 21in 22d
Made: Sep 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce new tariffs or trade restrictions on Chinese goods (beyond existing semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

Diosdado Cabello Rondón will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

geopolitical5%

Donald Trump will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026, resolving Polymarket question 1105746 as YES.

geopolitical5%

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Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

Iran will announce a confirmed advancement in uranium enrichment capability, such as new centrifuge installation or enrichment beyond 60% purity, within 30 days.

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