The United States will announce new tariffs or trade restrictions on Chinese goods (beyond existing semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 49% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-21.

Bayesian US-China Trade War Escalation shows a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict likely) despite the Nash 'negotiate' base case; policy_action base rate ~20% adjusted upward given the bargaining collapse signal.

Probability: 49%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 21in 22d
Made: Sep 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Diosdado Cabello Rondón will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

geopolitical5%

Iran will announce a confirmed advancement in uranium enrichment capability, such as new centrifuge installation or enrichment beyond 60% purity, within 30 days.

geopolitical5%

Donald Trump will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026, resolving Polymarket question 1105746 as YES.

geopolitical5%

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Iran will conduct a confirmed naval harassment, mine-laying, or vessel-seizure incident in the Strait of Hormuz within 14 days.

geopolitical85%

The United States will announce new tariffs or trade restrictions on Chinese goods (beyond existing semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

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