Diosdado Cabello Rondón will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-21 at 5% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-12-31.

Diverges from Polymarket's 0% pricing given intensifying US pressure campaign (OFAC sanctions signals, actor intelligence on Venezuela regime instability) that raises non-trivial succession/coup risk within Chavismo, with Cabello as most likely internal successor.

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 101 days
Deadline: Dec 31in 78d
Made: Sep 21

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The United States will announce new tariffs or trade restrictions on Chinese goods (beyond existing semiconductor export controls) within 30 days.

geopolitical49%

Iran will announce a confirmed advancement in uranium enrichment capability, such as new centrifuge installation or enrichment beyond 60% purity, within 30 days.

geopolitical5%

Donald Trump will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026, resolving Polymarket question 1105746 as YES.

geopolitical5%

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Diosdado Cabello Rondón will be the leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026.

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