Searched comprehensively for Iran nuclear talks announcements around March 19-22, 2026. Found extensive coverage of Iran-US tensions, conflicts, and nuclear talks in late February/early March 2026, including Khamenei's death on Feb 28 and various diplomatic developments, but no evidence of Iran announcing suspension or withdrawal from nuclear talks specifically within the 72-hour window of March 19-22, 2026. The prediction required such an announcement (target value: 1 = announcement made), but actual value: 0 = no such announcement found. Therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved Mar 22, 2026
Geopolitical
Iran will announce suspension or withdrawal from nuclear talks within 72 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox/Nowruz convergence window
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.336.
Probability
58%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Mar 22191d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.