Searched comprehensively for Iran nuclear talks announcements around March 19-22, 2026. Found extensive coverage of Iran-US tensions, conflicts, and nuclear talks in late February/early March 2026, including Khamenei's death on Feb 28 and various diplomatic developments, but no evidence of Iran announcing suspension or withdrawal from nuclear talks specifically within the 72-hour window of March 19-22, 2026. The prediction required such an announcement (target value: 1 = announcement made), but actual value: 0 = no such announcement found. Therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved Mar 22, 2026
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.336.
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.
VIX will spike above 25 during the March 31 Erev Pesach convergence as Taiwan Strait tensions escalate with at least one major military exercise announcement by PLA
GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will gain more than 2% within 30 days as multiple geopolitical Schelling points maintain risk-off positioning
USO (United States Oil Fund) will gain more than 4% within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts outweigh US SPR releases in the mixed Nash equilibrium outcome
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