VIX price data shows spike above 25 multiple times during the prediction window: March 6 high 29.93 (close 29.49), March 9 high 35.30 (close 25.50), March 12 close 27.29, March 13 high 28.47, March 20 high 29.28, March 23 high 31.04, March 27 high 31.65 (close 31.05), March 30 high 31.52 (close 30.61). Web search confirms VIX surged above 30 in late March with articles from March 27-28 referencing VIX spikes above 30. Taiwan Strait tensions confirmed by web search showing multiple articles within evidence window about China-Taiwan military threats. Actual: VIX peaked at 35.30, Required: above 25, 35.30 > 25 therefore threshold met.
Resolved Mar 31, 2026
Geopolitical
VIX will spike above 25 during the March 31 Erev Pesach convergence as Taiwan Strait tensions escalate with at least one major military exercise announcement by PLA
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 68% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-31. Brier score 0.102.
Probability
68%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Mar 31182d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.