MISSBrier 0.462

GLD closed at $471.80 on March 4, 2026. On April 2 (last trading day before deadline), GLD closed at $429.41. Actual return: ((429.41 - 471.80) / 471.80) * 100 = -9.02%. Required: >2.0% gain. Actual: -9.02%, Required: >2.0%, -9.02% < 2.0% therefore threshold NOT met. Direction also wrong (declined vs needed gain). Multiple geopolitical events occurred including Iran war and Taiwan tensions, but these created risk-off sentiment that hurt gold rather than helped it.

Resolved Apr 3, 2026

Geopolitical

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will gain more than 2% within 30 days as multiple geopolitical Schelling points maintain risk-off positioning

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 68% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-03. Brier score 0.462.

Derived from: Game theory analysis showing two active Schelling points (Taiwan/Iran) with 80% geopolitical escalation risk creating safe haven demand

Probability: 68%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 3179d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Iran will announce suspension or withdrawal from nuclear talks within 72 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox/Nowruz convergence window

geopolitical58%MISS

VIX will spike above 25 during the March 31 Erev Pesach convergence as Taiwan Strait tensions escalate with at least one major military exercise announcement by PLA

geopolitical68%HIT

USO (United States Oil Fund) will gain more than 4% within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts outweigh US SPR releases in the mixed Nash equilibrium outcome

geopolitical65%HIT

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GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will gain more than 2% within 30 days as multiple geopolitical Schelling points maintain risk-off positioning

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