GLD closed at $471.80 on March 4, 2026. On April 2 (last trading day before deadline), GLD closed at $429.41. Actual return: ((429.41 - 471.80) / 471.80) * 100 = -9.02%. Required: >2.0% gain. Actual: -9.02%, Required: >2.0%, -9.02% < 2.0% therefore threshold NOT met. Direction also wrong (declined vs needed gain). Multiple geopolitical events occurred including Iran war and Taiwan tensions, but these created risk-off sentiment that hurt gold rather than helped it.
Resolved Apr 3, 2026
Geopolitical
GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will gain more than 2% within 30 days as multiple geopolitical Schelling points maintain risk-off positioning
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 68% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-03. Brier score 0.462.
Derived from: Game theory analysis showing two active Schelling points (Taiwan/Iran) with 80% geopolitical escalation risk creating safe haven demand
Probability
68%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Apr 3179d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.