HITBrier 0.122

USO closed at $91.56 on March 4, 2026. On April 2 (last trading day before deadline), USO closed at $137.92. Actual return: ((137.92 - 91.56) / 91.56) * 100 = 50.6%. Required: >4.0% gain. Actual: 50.6%, Required: >4.0%, 50.6% > 4.0% therefore threshold met. Direction correct. Evidence shows Iran war led to oil supply disruptions with UAE and Kuwait cutting production after Hormuz blockage, Iraq export cuts, supporting oil prices dramatically.

Resolved Apr 3, 2026

Geopolitical

USO (United States Oil Fund) will gain more than 4% within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts outweigh US SPR releases in the mixed Nash equilibrium outcome

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 65% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-03. Brier score 0.122.

Derived from: Game theory analysis showing OPEC+ Production Decision most likely outcome 'Saudi chooses Cut production; US chooses Release SPR' with 70% confidence, creating oil price volatility favoring cuts

Probability: 65%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 3179d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will gain more than 2% within 30 days as multiple geopolitical Schelling points maintain risk-off positioning

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USO (United States Oil Fund) will gain more than 4% within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts outweigh US SPR releases in the mixed Nash equilibrium outcome

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