FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust) will outperform DXY (Dollar Index) by closing at least 1.5% higher relative to DXY within 7 days as Iran diplomatic negotiations reduce safe haven dollar demand

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-11. Brier score 0.336.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout game theory showing most likely outcome 'Iran chooses Negotiate; Israel chooses Diplomatic pressure' (bullish, 70% confidence), reducing Middle East risk premium for dollar

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 11202d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

USO (United States Oil Fund) will gain more than 4% within 30 days as OPEC+ production cuts outweigh US SPR releases in the mixed Nash equilibrium outcome

geopolitical65%HIT

Taiwan will announce at least one new military drill or exercise within 48 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

geopolitical61%HIT

GLD (SPDR Gold Trust) will gain more than 2% within 30 days as multiple geopolitical Schelling points maintain risk-off positioning

geopolitical68%MISS

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FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust) will outperform DXY (Dollar Index) by closing at least 1.5% higher relative to DXY within 7 days as Iran diplomatic negotiations reduce safe haven dollar demand

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