HITBrier 0.152

Taiwan defense ministry announced Tianma Exercise (March 17-19) on March 8, plus Combat Training Center Rotation 2.0 (10-day continuous drills) announced March 5. Both fall within the prediction window. Originally auto-denied on prod due to GDELT search not finding the specific articles.

Resolved Mar 10, 2026

Geopolitical

Taiwan will announce at least one new military drill or exercise within 48 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-04 at 61% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-10. Brier score 0.152.

Derived from: Vernal Equinox signal with Taiwan Strait Tension Window and geopolitical escalation risk at 80%, plus China's gray zone escalation Nash equilibrium at 70% confidence

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 11202d ago
Made: Mar 4

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

FXE (CurrencyShares Euro Trust) will outperform DXY (Dollar Index) by closing at least 1.5% higher relative to DXY within 7 days as Iran diplomatic negotiations reduce safe haven dollar demand

geopolitical58%MISS

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Taiwan will announce at least one new military drill or exercise within 48 hours of the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence

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