MISSBrier 0.308

Web search found no evidence of G7 sanctions announcements targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within the evidence window 2026-03-27 to 2026-04-10. Found 4 results but none mentioned new sanctions - only peace talks and diplomatic negotiations. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 11, 2026

Geopolitical

IRGC

At least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-27 at 56% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-11. Brier score 0.308.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout shows Fearon bargaining failure with 0% bargaining range - structural conditions favor conflict. IRGC actively conducting sustained multi-wave retaliatory missile campaigns requiring coordinated Western response escalation.

Probability: 56%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 10172d ago
Made: Mar 27

Price Target$14

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least 2 major shipping insurers will announce Persian Gulf premium surcharges or coverage restrictions within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive capability demonstrated through coordinated multi-domain strikes creates maritime risk repricing

geopolitical46%MISS

At least 2 major European defense contractors will announce emergency production capacity expansion or accelerated delivery schedules within 7 days as confirmed Iran IRGC sustained missile campaigns and Strait of Hormuz closure create urgent NATO readiness requirements

geopolitical44%MISS

At least 4 major European shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf insurance surcharge increases within 7 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate maritime risk premiums

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At least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

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