MISSBrier 0.267

Web search for European shipping companies announcing insurance surcharge increases during March 23-30, 2026 evidence window returned 0 results. No announcements found from European shipping companies regarding Red Sea or Persian Gulf insurance surcharge increases. Actual: 0 companies, Required: 4 companies, 0 < 4 therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Mar 30, 2026

Geopolitical

IRGC

At least 4 major European shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf insurance surcharge increases within 7 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate maritime risk premiums

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-23 at 52% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-30. Brier score 0.267.

Derived from: Actor intelligence confirms IRGC 'conducting sustained offensive operations against US and Israeli targets' with documented strikes. Knowledge bank shows 'Live: Red Sea Houthi Shipping' active intelligence. Multiple pending predictions already confirm shipping route modifications, indicating escalating maritime risks.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 30183d ago
Made: Mar 23

Price Target$4

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

At least 2 major Middle Eastern sovereign wealth funds will announce portfolio rebalancing or risk management initiatives within 14 days as Iran IRGC operations against 25 Israeli locations create regional capital flight pressures

geopolitical68%MISS

At least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

geopolitical56%MISS

At least 2 major shipping insurers will announce Persian Gulf premium surcharges or coverage restrictions within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive capability demonstrated through coordinated multi-domain strikes creates maritime risk repricing

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At least 4 major European shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf insurance surcharge increases within 7 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate maritime risk premiums

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