MISSBrier 0.210

Searched for shipping insurer announcements regarding Persian Gulf premium surcharges or coverage restrictions during March 30 - April 13, 2026. Found general articles about Middle East tensions and energy crisis but no specific announcements by major shipping insurers regarding premium surcharges or coverage restrictions. Search results included articles about Iran Strait of Hormuz tensions and energy crisis but no concrete insurer policy announcements. Actual insurer announcements: 0, Required: at least 2, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 13, 2026

Geopolitical

IRGC

At least 2 major shipping insurers will announce Persian Gulf premium surcharges or coverage restrictions within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive capability demonstrated through coordinated multi-domain strikes creates maritime risk repricing

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-30 at 46% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-13. Brier score 0.210.

Derived from: Actor intelligence on Iran IRGC showing 'sustained offensive capability through coordinated multi-domain strikes' while maintaining 'defensive rhetoric'. Wartime regime creates insurance market repricing of Middle East maritime routes.

Probability: 46%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 13169d ago
Made: Mar 30

Price Target$2

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

At least 2 major European defense contractors will announce emergency production capacity expansion or accelerated delivery schedules within 7 days as confirmed Iran IRGC sustained missile campaigns and Strait of Hormuz closure create urgent NATO readiness requirements

geopolitical44%MISS

At least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

geopolitical56%MISS

At least 4 major European shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf insurance surcharge increases within 7 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate maritime risk premiums

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At least 2 major shipping insurers will announce Persian Gulf premium surcharges or coverage restrictions within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive capability demonstrated through coordinated multi-domain strikes creates maritime risk repricing

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