MISSBrier 0.194

Search results show evidence of Iran-related conflicts and tensions during the evidence window (March 31 - April 7, 2026), with articles confirming IRGC activities and regional military tensions. However, specific search for European defense contractors (BAE Systems, Airbus Defense, Thales, Leonardo, Rheinmetall) emergency production announcements returned 0 results within the evidence window. No announcements found of emergency production capacity expansion or accelerated delivery schedules by major European defense contractors. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 2 announcements, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 11, 2026

Geopolitical

IRGC

At least 2 major European defense contractors will announce emergency production capacity expansion or accelerated delivery schedules within 7 days as confirmed Iran IRGC sustained missile campaigns and Strait of Hormuz closure create urgent NATO readiness requirements

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-31 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-11. Brier score 0.194.

Derived from: Active wartime regime with confirmed Iran IRGC '81 documented strike waves' and Strait of Hormuz closure reports. Actor intelligence shows NATO expanding operations. Using reference class 'policy_action/geopolitical' base rate 38% but adjusting up due to confirmed military escalation already underway.

Probability: 44%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 7175d ago
Made: Mar 31

Price Target$2

Regimewartime

At least 2 major shipping insurers will announce Persian Gulf premium surcharges or coverage restrictions within 14 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive capability demonstrated through coordinated multi-domain strikes creates maritime risk repricing

geopolitical46%MISS

At least one G7 nation will announce new sanctions targeting Iranian energy infrastructure or IRGC entities within 14 days

geopolitical56%MISS

At least 4 major European shipping companies will announce Red Sea or Persian Gulf insurance surcharge increases within 7 days as Iran IRGC sustained offensive operations escalate maritime risk premiums

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

At least 2 major European defense contractors will announce emergency production capacity expansion or accelerated delivery schedules within 7 days as confirmed Iran IRGC sustained missile campaigns and Strait of Hormuz closure create urgent NATO readiness requirements

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture