Search results show evidence of Iran-related conflicts and tensions during the evidence window (March 31 - April 7, 2026), with articles confirming IRGC activities and regional military tensions. However, specific search for European defense contractors (BAE Systems, Airbus Defense, Thales, Leonardo, Rheinmetall) emergency production announcements returned 0 results within the evidence window. No announcements found of emergency production capacity expansion or accelerated delivery schedules by major European defense contractors. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 2 announcements, 0 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.
Resolved Apr 11, 2026
Geopolitical
IRGC
At least 2 major European defense contractors will announce emergency production capacity expansion or accelerated delivery schedules within 7 days as confirmed Iran IRGC sustained missile campaigns and Strait of Hormuz closure create urgent NATO readiness requirements
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-31 at 44% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-11. Brier score 0.194.
Derived from: Active wartime regime with confirmed Iran IRGC '81 documented strike waves' and Strait of Hormuz closure reports. Actor intelligence shows NATO expanding operations. Using reference class 'policy_action/geopolitical' base rate 38% but adjusting up due to confirmed military escalation already underway.
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Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.