MISSBrier 0.336

Calculating daily Brent-WTI spreads from price data: March 10: $87.80-$83.45=$4.35, March 11: $91.98-$87.25=$4.73, March 12: $100.46-$95.73=$4.73, March 13: $103.14-$98.71=$4.43. Most trading days showed spreads between $3-5, but none reached $5 or above consistently. The spread actually narrowed in many periods rather than widened. Actual: 0 days ≥$5, Required: 3 days, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Market

The spread between Brent crude and WTI crude will widen to at least $5/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create asymmetric geopolitical risk premiums in international benchmarks versus domestic US supply cushioned by SPR releases

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.336.

Derived from: Game theory OPEC+ Production Decision outcome ('Saudi chooses Cut production; US chooses Release SPR' at 70% confidence) creating divergent supply dynamics between international and domestic crude benchmarks, combined with Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario (20% probability) adding geopolitical premium to Brent

Probability: 58%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US 10-Year Treasury yield will decline below 4.00% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the risk-off regime with SPY RSI at 38.5 and bearish momentum drives sustained flight-to-quality flows into sovereign bonds

market55%MISS

The USD/JPY exchange rate will trade above 155 on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as risk-off dollar strength and BOJ policy divergence from Fed create sustained yen weakness despite Japan's safe-haven currency status

market52%HIT

Brent crude oil will trade above $82/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward price pressure without a full supply shock

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