The spread between Brent crude and WTI crude will widen to at least $5/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create asymmetric geopolitical risk premiums in international benchmarks versus domestic US supply cushioned by SPR releases
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 58% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.336.
Derived from: Game theory OPEC+ Production Decision outcome ('Saudi chooses Cut production; US chooses Release SPR' at 70% confidence) creating divergent supply dynamics between international and domestic crude benchmarks, combined with Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario (20% probability) adding geopolitical premium to Brent
- Probability
- 58%
- Timeframe
- 30 days
- Deadline
- Apr 6176d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.