HITBrier 0.230

USD/JPY price data shows current price at 159.55 as of April 6, 2026. Historical data from March 9 through April 6 shows USD/JPY consistently traded above 155 on all available trading days in the dataset (21 trading days with data: Mar 9-13, 16-20, 23-27, 29-31, Apr 1-2, 6). Lowest close was 157.848 on March 10. Actual count: 21 days, Required: 3 days, 21 > 3 therefore threshold MET. Currency moved in predicted direction (stayed above 155 throughout period).

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Market

The USD/JPY exchange rate will trade above 155 on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as risk-off dollar strength and BOJ policy divergence from Fed create sustained yen weakness despite Japan's safe-haven currency status

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 52% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.230.

Derived from: BOJ Reaction Function knowledge bank entry noting BOJ abandoned YCC but maintains accommodative posture while Fed holds rates higher. DXY safe-haven demand prediction (existing at 67% confidence) implies broad dollar strength. Risk-off regime with 80% geopolitical escalation risk creates dollar demand that overwhelms yen safe-haven flows given BOJ policy stance.

Probability: 52%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

The US 10-Year Treasury yield will decline below 4.00% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the risk-off regime with SPY RSI at 38.5 and bearish momentum drives sustained flight-to-quality flows into sovereign bonds

market55%MISS

The spread between Brent crude and WTI crude will widen to at least $5/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create asymmetric geopolitical risk premiums in international benchmarks versus domestic US supply cushioned by SPR releases

market58%MISS

Brent crude oil will trade above $82/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward price pressure without a full supply shock

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The USD/JPY exchange rate will trade above 155 on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as risk-off dollar strength and BOJ policy divergence from Fed create sustained yen weakness despite Japan's safe-haven currency status

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