MISSBrier 0.303

US 10-Year Treasury yield data shows the yield was ABOVE 4.00% throughout the prediction period and actually RISING. On March 7, 2026 (creation date), yield was around 4.13%. By March 21, 2026, it reached 4.39% - a significant INCREASE, not decrease. The yield never declined below 4.00% on any trading day during the 14-day window. The prediction was completely wrong in both direction (yields rose instead of falling) and level (never reached below 4.00%).

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Market

The US 10-Year Treasury yield will decline below 4.00% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the risk-off regime with SPY RSI at 38.5 and bearish momentum drives sustained flight-to-quality flows into sovereign bonds

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-21. Brier score 0.303.

Derived from: Active thesis confirming risk-off regime with SPY RSI 38.5, bearish trend, and 80% escalation risk across multiple theaters. Cross-Asset Correlation Regime Framework indicates stock-bond negative correlation regime (bonds rally when equities fall) should hold in this environment. Credit Stress Indicator Framework supports flight to quality.

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 21192d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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The spread between Brent crude and WTI crude will widen to at least $5/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create asymmetric geopolitical risk premiums in international benchmarks versus domestic US supply cushioned by SPR releases

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Brent crude oil will trade above $82/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward price pressure without a full supply shock

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The US 10-Year Treasury yield will decline below 4.00% on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as the risk-off regime with SPY RSI at 38.5 and bearish momentum drives sustained flight-to-quality flows into sovereign bonds

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