HITBrier 0.160

Counting days from Brent price history where close was above $82: March 10 ($87.80), March 11 ($91.98), March 12 ($100.46), March 13 ($103.14), March 16 ($100.21), March 17 ($103.42), March 18 ($107.38), March 19 ($108.65), March 20 ($112.19), March 24 ($104.49), March 25 ($102.22), March 26 ($108.01), March 27 ($112.57), March 30 ($112.78), March 31 ($118.35), April 1 ($101.16), April 2 ($109.03), April 6 ($110.01). Total: 18 days above $82. Actual: 18 days, Required: 3 days, 18 ≥ 3 therefore threshold MET.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Market

Brent crude oil will trade above $82/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward price pressure without a full supply shock

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 60% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.160.

Derived from: Game theory OPEC+ Production Decision showing Saudi cuts as most likely outcome (70%), Iran Nuclear Breakout showing 'Negotiate/Diplomatic pressure' as most likely but with 20% breakout risk scenario, combined with commodity seasonality noting crude tends to rally Q1-Q2 and thesis noting 'managed energy price increases rather than supply shocks'

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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market62%MISS

HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will decline more than 2% from its March 7 close within 14 days as credit spreads widen in response to risk-off regime and elevated geopolitical escalation risk

market60%PARTIAL

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will decline more than 5% from its March 7 close within the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation and risk-off conditions weigh on semiconductor supply chain confidence

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Brent crude oil will trade above $82/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward price pressure without a full supply shock

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