PARTIALBrier 0.360

Corrected: HYG declined ~1% (direction correct) but did not reach the required >2% decline threshold. Actual: ~0.97%, Required: >2.0%. Direction correct, magnitude insufficient.

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Market

HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will decline more than 2% from its March 7 close within 14 days as credit spreads widen in response to risk-off regime and elevated geopolitical escalation risk

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 60% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.360.

Derived from: Credit Stress Indicator Framework identifying credit markets as leading indicators of equity weakness, SPY RSI at 38.5 with bearish trend confirming broad risk-off, 80% geopolitical escalation probability across three theaters, and MACD histogram at -1.196 indicating accelerating bearish momentum. High yield spreads typically widen 50-100bps in sustained risk-off environments.

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 21192d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will decline more than 5% from its March 7 close within the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation and risk-off conditions weigh on semiconductor supply chain confidence

market62%HIT

GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) will outperform SPY by at least 4% during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as gold miners benefit from safe-haven flows and risk-off regime while equities remain under bearish technical pressure

market67%MISS

The spread between SPY and QQQ MACD histograms will narrow (QQQ outperformance vs SPY will increase) with QQQ closing above SPY on a relative basis by at least 1.5% over the 14-day period ending March 21, as the current MACD divergence (SPY -1.196 vs QQQ +0.099) signals technology sector relative strength emerging within the broader risk-off regime

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HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will decline more than 2% from its March 7 close within 14 days as credit spreads widen in response to risk-off regime and elevated geopolitical escalation risk

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