The spread between SPY and QQQ MACD histograms will narrow (QQQ outperformance vs SPY will increase) with QQQ closing above SPY on a relative basis by at least 1.5% over the 14-day period ending March 21, as the current MACD divergence (SPY -1.196 vs QQQ +0.099) signals technology sector relative strength emerging within the broader risk-off regime
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 62% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-21. Brier score 0.384.
Derived from: Thesis technical analysis showing SPY MACD histogram at -1.196 vs QQQ at +0.099, explicitly noting 'technology names are beginning to outperform the broader market despite overall bearish conditions' and QQQ RSI 43.1 vs SPY RSI 38.5
- Probability
- 62%
- Timeframe
- 14 days
- Deadline
- Mar 21192d ago
- Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.