MISSBrier 0.384

QQQ March 7 close ~599.75, current 582.06. SPY March 7 close ~672.38, current 648.57. QQQ declined -2.95%, SPY declined -3.54%. QQQ outperformed SPY by 0.59%, not the required 1.5%. More importantly, the prediction required QQQ to outperform, which it did, but by insufficient margin.

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Market

The spread between SPY and QQQ MACD histograms will narrow (QQQ outperformance vs SPY will increase) with QQQ closing above SPY on a relative basis by at least 1.5% over the 14-day period ending March 21, as the current MACD divergence (SPY -1.196 vs QQQ +0.099) signals technology sector relative strength emerging within the broader risk-off regime

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 62% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-21. Brier score 0.384.

Derived from: Thesis technical analysis showing SPY MACD histogram at -1.196 vs QQQ at +0.099, explicitly noting 'technology names are beginning to outperform the broader market despite overall bearish conditions' and QQQ RSI 43.1 vs SPY RSI 38.5

Probability: 62%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 21192d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Brent crude oil will trade above $82/barrel on at least 3 trading days during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as OPEC+ cut dynamics and Iran nuclear uncertainty create upward price pressure without a full supply shock

market60%HIT

HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will decline more than 2% from its March 7 close within 14 days as credit spreads widen in response to risk-off regime and elevated geopolitical escalation risk

market60%PARTIAL

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will decline more than 5% from its March 7 close within the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation and risk-off conditions weigh on semiconductor supply chain confidence

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