MISSBrier 0.449

From March 9 close to April 6: SPY went from 678.27 to 655.83 = -3.31%. GDX went from 102.44 to 94.59 = -7.66%. GDX relative performance vs SPY: -7.66% - (-3.31%) = -4.35%, meaning GDX underperformed SPY by 4.35%. Using broader period estimate from March 7, GDX underperformed by approximately 7.46%. Required: GDX outperform by 4%, Actual: GDX underperformed by 7.46%, -7.46 < 4.0 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 6, 2026

Market

GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) will outperform SPY by at least 4% during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as gold miners benefit from safe-haven flows and risk-off regime while equities remain under bearish technical pressure

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 67% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-06. Brier score 0.449.

Derived from: Risk-off market regime with SPY RSI at 38.5 and bearish momentum, 80% geopolitical escalation risk across three theaters driving safe-haven demand, and Cross-Asset Correlation Regime Framework showing gold outperformance in risk-off environments. Gold miners provide leveraged exposure to gold price appreciation.

Probability: 67%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 6176d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

SMH (VanEck Semiconductor ETF) will decline more than 5% from its March 7 close within the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as Taiwan Strait gray zone escalation and risk-off conditions weigh on semiconductor supply chain confidence

market62%HIT

HYG (iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF) will decline more than 2% from its March 7 close within 14 days as credit spreads widen in response to risk-off regime and elevated geopolitical escalation risk

market60%PARTIAL

The spread between SPY and QQQ MACD histograms will narrow (QQQ outperformance vs SPY will increase) with QQQ closing above SPY on a relative basis by at least 1.5% over the 14-day period ending March 21, as the current MACD divergence (SPY -1.196 vs QQQ +0.099) signals technology sector relative strength emerging within the broader risk-off regime

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GDX (VanEck Gold Miners ETF) will outperform SPY by at least 4% during the 30-day period ending April 6, 2026, as gold miners benefit from safe-haven flows and risk-off regime while equities remain under bearish technical pressure

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