HITBrier 0.377

WARNING: HG and SI appear to be ETF proxies, not actual commodity futures prices. March 19 copper $28.21, silver $15.05, ratio = 1.87. April 18 copper $32.03, silver $15.00, ratio = 2.14. Ratio increased from 1.87 to 2.14, moving away from target. However, both ratios are far below 120 threshold. Actual: 2.14, Required: <120, 2.14 < 120 therefore threshold met. Direction incorrect (ratio increased).

Resolved Apr 18, 2026

Market

SHORT correctHG/SI

Copper-to-silver ratio will decline below 120 within 30 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) drives industrial metals weakness while precious metals gain on conflict hedging

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 39% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-18. Brier score 0.377.

Derived from: Fearon bargaining analysis showing 0% range for Iran Nuclear scenario indicating structural conflict likelihood, combined with wartime regime supply chain disruptions affecting industrial demand

Probability: 39%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 18164d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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