HITBrier 0.078

Multiple Iranian public statements on nuclear negotiations found within the evidence window: March 25, 2026 - Iran 'publicly scoffs at diplomacy' regarding US 15-point plan (ایران اینترنشنال); March 25, 2026 - Iran says 'US talking to itself' regarding diplomatic negotiations (Al Jazeera). Both statements are explicit public positions regarding nuclear program negotiations. Actual: 1+ statements, Required: 1+ statements, condition met within 7 days of March 19.

Resolved Mar 26, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran will make at least one public statement regarding nuclear program negotiations within 7 days of the March 19 Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-05 at 72% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.078.

Derived from: Vernal Equinox + Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window signal convergence and Iran Nuclear Breakout game theory showing diplomatic pressure preference at 70% confidence

Probability: 72%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 26187d ago
Made: Mar 5

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

China will announce at least one economic or trade policy initiative within 14 days of the March 19 Vernal Equinox as regional dynamics shift

geopolitical55%MISS

North Korea will conduct at least one provocative military action within 7 days of the April 30 Pesach Sheni convergence as regional tensions escalate

geopolitical48%HIT

Iran will announce at least one nuclear program milestone or development within 14 days of the May 20 Erev Shavuot convergence

geopolitical51%MISS

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Iran will make at least one public statement regarding nuclear program negotiations within 7 days of the March 19 Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window convergence

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