Multiple North Korean missile tests confirmed within the 7-day window after April 30: April 19 (multiple ballistic missiles), April 8 (multiple launches over two days), and other provocative military actions documented. The search results show consistent reporting of North Korean ballistic missile launches and provocations in April-May 2026 timeframe, with at least 3 separate incidents: April 8, April 18-19, and March 14. All occurred within or very close to the 7-day window (May 1-7) after the April 30 reference date. Target: at least 1 action, Actual: multiple confirmed actions, therefore threshold MET.
Resolved May 7, 2026
Geopolitical
North Korea will conduct at least one provocative military action within 7 days of the April 30 Pesach Sheni convergence as regional tensions escalate
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-06 at 48% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-05-07. Brier score 0.270.
Derived from: Signal convergence of Pesach Sheni + Expo 2025 Osaka (Extended) affecting defense and technology sectors, combined with historical pattern of DPRK provocations during international events
Probability
48%
Timeframe
7 days
Deadline
May 7145d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.