MISSBrier 0.303

Search results within the evidence window (March 5 - April 2, 2026) show no clear announcements of new Chinese economic or trade policy initiatives. Results include general China-related articles but no specific policy announcements matching the prediction criteria. The March 28 WTO E-Commerce Agreement item appears to be multilateral, not a unilateral Chinese initiative. No evidence found of China announcing economic or trade policy initiatives within the specified timeframe.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Geopolitical

China will announce at least one economic or trade policy initiative within 14 days of the March 19 Vernal Equinox as regional dynamics shift

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-05 at 55% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.303.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis game theory showing China's gray zone escalation preference at 70% confidence and Vernal Equinox convergence with geopolitical assessment windows

Probability: 55%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 5

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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North Korea will conduct at least one provocative military action within 7 days of the April 30 Pesach Sheni convergence as regional tensions escalate

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Iran will announce at least one nuclear program milestone or development within 14 days of the May 20 Erev Shavuot convergence

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China will announce at least one economic or trade policy initiative within 14 days of the March 19 Vernal Equinox as regional dynamics shift

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