No evidence of Taiwan announcing enhanced military readiness measures within the specified timeframe. Search results show: March 19, 2026 - US intelligence reports China not planning invasion by 2027, but no Taiwan military readiness announcements; March 10, 2026 - Taiwan Army exercise simulating airborne assault (outside 7-day window); March 8, 2026 - Taiwan announces 6-day live-fire exercise (outside 7-day window). No specific enhanced readiness announcements found between March 19-26. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: 1+ announcements, threshold NOT met.
Resolved Mar 26, 2026
Geopolitical
Taiwan will announce enhanced military readiness measures within 7 days of March 19 as Vernal Equinox convergence intensifies regional tensions
NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-06 at 67% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-26. Brier score 0.449.
Derived from: Vernal Equinox signal (2026-03-19) with Taiwan Strait Tension Window convergence, supported by game theory Taiwan Strait Crisis showing 'China chooses Gray zone escalation' at 70% confidence
Probability
67%
Timeframe
14 days
Deadline
Mar 26187d ago
Made
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.