Israel and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 53% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-10-01.

Iran Nuclear Bayesian analysis shows a 0% Fearon bargaining range (structural conflict conditions) with 60% bearish market confidence, yet the most recent 30-day window on this exact event class resolved 'denied' despite active US-Iran war, as both sides avoided direct infrastructure strikes on each other. Confidence reflects the persistent structural risk tempered by the demonstrated pattern of mutual avoidance.

Probability: 53%
Timeframe: 21 days
Deadline: Oct 1in 2d
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Saudi Arabia will publicly announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut within 30 days.

geopolitical18%

The United States will impose a new sanction or trade restriction targeting Iran's oil exports or shipping network within 14 days.

geopolitical29%

Israel will conduct at least one additional confirmed military strike on Iranian-linked (IRGC, Hezbollah, or proxy) targets in Syria or Lebanon within 14 days.

geopolitical73%

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Israel will publicly report a heightened military alert, mobilization, or security operation specifically tied to the October 7 anniversary period within 30 days.

geopolitical75%

Israel and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.

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