Israel will conduct at least one additional confirmed military strike on Iranian-linked (IRGC, Hezbollah, or proxy) targets in Syria or Lebanon within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 73% probability. Resolved: Expired on 2026-10-02.

Fearon Iran-nuclear bargaining range at 0% (structural conflict conditions) combined with active Hezbollah/IRGC escalation intelligence updates describing sustained rocket attacks and explicit threats against US/Israeli infrastructure.

Probability: 73%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 2420d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

India will conduct at least one additional acknowledged cross-border military strike, artillery exchange, or drone incursion against Pakistan-based targets within 30 days.

geopolitical52%

The US Congress or SEC will formally advance (pass a chamber vote, or issue a final/proposed rule) comprehensive crypto market structure legislation within 30 days.

geopolitical20%

Israel and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.

geopolitical53%MISS

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Israel will conduct at least one additional confirmed military strike on Iranian-linked (IRGC, Hezbollah, or proxy) targets in Syria or Lebanon within 14 days.

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