The United States will impose a new sanction or trade restriction targeting Iran's oil exports or shipping network within 14 days.

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-10 at 29% probability. Pending, resolves by 2026-09-24.

Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining range is at 0% (structural conflict conditions), and Hormuz escalation probability sits at 67% with confirmed harassment/mine/seizure incidents already occurring. This continues the pattern of US economic-pressure responses (e.g., prior FCC/Xinjiang measures against China under the Taiwan Bayesian equilibrium) now extended to the Iran-Hormuz theater.

Probability: 29%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 245d ago
Made: Sep 10

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Israel will publicly report a heightened military alert, mobilization, or security operation specifically tied to the October 7 anniversary period within 30 days.

geopolitical75%

The United Nations or a G7/UNGA-linked multilateral forum will issue a formal statement or resolution addressing the Strait of Hormuz shipping disruption during the UN General Assembly session within 14 days.

geopolitical57%

Saudi Arabia will publicly announce a unilateral OPEC+ production cut within 30 days.

geopolitical18%

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Israel and Iran will conduct a direct state-attributed missile or airstrike exchange targeting military or nuclear infrastructure within 21 days.

geopolitical53%

The United States will impose a new sanction or trade restriction targeting Iran's oil exports or shipping network within 14 days.

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