HITBrier 0.028

Early-confirmed: BAC, close-touch contract. Evidence window: after issuance date 2026-09-15 through 2026-10-15. Target: below 55.9. Target hit on: 2026-09-28. Fixed-horizon direction and return await the deadline close.

Resolved Sep 29, 2026

Market

SHORT correctBAC

Bank of America (BAC) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as wartime risk-off credit stress and the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) weigh on financials beyond the recent drawdown (target below $55.90, 6% from $59.47 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-15 at 83% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-29. Brier score 0.028.

Derived from: risk_off regime confirmation, Iran Nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structural conflict conditions), and 80% overall escalation risk score.

Probability: 83%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Oct 151d ago
Made: Sep 15

Price Target$55.9

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

BAC (Bank of America) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $60.17, 4% from $62.68 at creation)

market36%HIT

BAC will close at least 3% below its October 6, 2026 closing price on at least one trading day by October 20, 2026 (target below $52.38, 3% from $54.00 at creation)

market60%HIT

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