HITBrier 0.404

Early-confirmed: BAC hit target below 60.17 on 2026-09-14. Current price: 59.47 (started at 62.68).

Resolved Sep 15, 2026

Market

SHORT correctBAC

BAC (Bank of America) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $60.17, 4% from $62.68 at creation)

NEXUS forecast made 2026-09-06 at 36% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-09-15. Brier score 0.404.

Wartime risk-off regime (Fear & Greed 38, deeply oversold SPY/QQQ RSI) combined with hawkish Fed hold guidance and zero stable Fed equilibrium pressures bank equities via credit-stress and rate-uncertainty channels.

Probability: 36%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Sep 209d ago
Made: Sep 6

Price Target$60.17

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Bank of America (BAC) will close at least 6% below its current price on at least one trading day within 30 days as wartime risk-off credit stress and the Iran-nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) weigh on financials beyond the recent drawdown (target below $55.90, 6% from $59.47 at creation)

market83%

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BAC (Bank of America) will close at least 4% below its current price on at least one trading day within 14 days (target below $60.17, 4% from $62.68 at creation)

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