The CBOE Put/Call Ratio will exceed 1.20 on at least 2 trading days within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% bargaining range) drives defensive positioning despite current market complacency at neutral sentiment

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-25 at 66% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-16. Brier score 0.437.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis shows 'Fearon bargaining failure: no stable equilibrium exists' with 0% bargaining range, yet market sentiment remains neutral at 50 on Fear/Greed index, creating dangerous divergence between structural conflict probability and options positioning

Probability

66%

Timeframe

14 days

Deadline

Apr 8174d ago

Made

Mar 25

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.