[basis: absence] Multiple searches (5 differently-phrased queries) covering the full evidence window 2026-07-14 to 2026-08-13 show an active US-Iran war (US airstrikes on Iran, IRGC retaliatory strikes on US bases in Kuwait, Bahrain, Jordan, Houthi actions) but NO wire/official-tier report of a DIRECT Israel-Iran strike on nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure during this window. Al Jazeera (wire) explicitly noted 'Why is Iran bombing Gulf states while avoiding US naval assets and Israel?' (2026-07-20), and The Guardian (2026-07-19) reported Israel 'threatens full force response IF Iran fires missiles towards it' -- conditional/future language, not a confirmed completed strike. No subsequent search turned up a confirmed Israel-Iran direct strike through 2026-08-13. Threshold (a direct Israel<->Iran strike) not confirmed met.
Resolved Aug 13, 2026
Geopolitical
LONG wrongIRGC
Israel or Iran/IRGC-aligned forces will conduct at least one direct military strike on the other's nuclear, military, or naval infrastructure within 30 days.
NEXUS forecast made 2026-07-14 at 20% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-08-13. Brier score 0.041.
Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range, structurally conflict-favoring per Bayesian assessment) tempered by the model's own stated 20% escalation probability, and Iran IRGC actor intelligence showing active escalation mode following senior naval leadership losses.
Probability
20%
Timeframe
30 days
Deadline
Aug 1347d ago
Made
Regimewartime
Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .