MISSBrier 0.413

Evidence from March 2026 shows European markets performed poorly during this period. Multiple sources indicate European stocks had their 'worst month since 2022' and 'worst weekly performance in nearly a year' due to the Iran war. Bloomberg specifically reported on March 17 that 'European Defense Stocks Stall as Investors Seek Earnings Proof.' STOXX 600 suffered significant declines, and defense stocks did not outperform - they appeared to decline along with broader markets. No evidence of 3%+ defense stock outperformance found.

Resolved Apr 2, 2026

Market

LONG wrongDEFENSE_VS_STOXX

European defense stocks will outperform STOXX 600 by at least 3% within 14 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) and multiple zero-equilibrium scenarios drive military procurement expectations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-19 at 64% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-02. Brier score 0.413.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout Bayesian analysis showing Fearon bargaining failure with 0% range and 'structural conditions favor conflict', plus NATO readiness requirements from wartime regime

Probability: 64%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 2180d ago
Made: Mar 19

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.