UX closed at 30.268999 on March 20 (closest available to March 22 creation). UX current price is 31.5842. Actual gain = ((31.5842 - 30.268999) / 30.268999) * 100 = 4.35%. Direction was correct (up) but magnitude insufficient. Actual: 4.2%, Required: >8%, 4.2% < 8% therefore threshold NOT met

Resolved Apr 21, 2026

Market

LONG correctUX

Uranium futures (UX) will gain more than 8% within 30 days as nuclear security concerns from Iran conflict and energy independence priorities drive strategic stockpiling demand

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-22 at 45% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-04-21. Brier score 0.200.

Derived from: Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario showing 0% Fearon bargaining range indicating structural conflict likelihood. Wartime regime with nuclear security implications. European energy security scenarios in game theory analysis showing accelerated nuclear alternative demand.

Probability: 45%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 21161d ago
Made: Mar 22

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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