MISSBrier 0.249

Web search for international shipping company announcements regarding Red Sea route suspensions or additional security surcharges from March 20-27, 2026 returned 0 results. No evidence found of any major shipping companies making such announcements within the 7-day prediction window. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 27, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

At least one major international shipping company will announce Red Sea route suspension or additional security surcharges within 7 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) escalates regional maritime risks

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 50% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-27. Brier score 0.249.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran Nuclear Breakout has 0% Fearon bargaining range indicating structural conflict likelihood. Red Sea Shipping Crisis game theory shows Iran maintaining Houthi support with mixed equilibrium. Knowledge bank shows active Red Sea Houthi shipping disruptions.

Probability: 50%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 27186d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least one major international shipping company will announce Red Sea route suspension or additional security surcharges within 7 days as Iran Nuclear Breakout Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) escalates regional maritime risks

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