HITBrier 0.267

Web search within evidence window (March 20 - April 3, 2026) found multiple relevant defense expansion announcements. Key evidence: 'THEON officially inaugurates the production facilities of THEON Belgium in Zaventem, expanding its European footprint' (March 31), 'Poland Moves to Local Missile Production With CAMM-ER Facility' (March 31), and 'Pentagon reaches deals with defense firms to expand munitions production' (March 25). THEON Belgium facility inauguration represents emergency production capacity expansion by a European defense contractor. Required: ≥1 major European defense contractor announces expansion/acceleration, Actual: at least 1 confirmed (THEON Belgium facility)

Resolved Apr 3, 2026

Geopolitical

At least one major European defense contractor will announce emergency production capacity expansion or government contract acceleration within 14 days as multiple game theory scenarios project 70% confidence mixed/bearish outcomes with fragile stability

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-20 at 48% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-03. Brier score 0.267.

Derived from: Game theory analysis showing Taiwan Strait (Gray zone escalation/Economic deterrence, 70% confidence, fragile stability), Iran Nuclear (0% bargaining range), and OPEC+ scenarios all projecting elevated conflict probability. European defense industrial base requires rapid scaling given multiple simultaneous threat vectors.

Probability: 48%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 3179d ago
Made: Mar 20

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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At least one major European defense contractor will announce emergency production capacity expansion or government contract acceleration within 14 days as multiple game theory scenarios project 70% confidence mixed/bearish outcomes with fragile stability

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