MISSBrier 0.115

Search found 3 articles during evidence window (2026-03-18 to 2026-04-01) related to oil and Iran, including articles from Council on Foreign Relations about oil dependence, and coverage of Israel-Iran tensions. However, none of these articles specifically mention OPEC member countries making public statements regarding production policy. The articles discuss geopolitical tensions that could affect oil markets but do not document the specific OPEC statements predicted. Actual: 0 OPEC statements, Required: at least 3, 0 < 3 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 1, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 3 OPEC member countries will make public statements regarding production policy within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces coalition positioning ahead of June ministerial

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-01. Brier score 0.115.

Derived from: Bayesian analysis shows Iran nuclear breakout has 'Fearon bargaining failure: no stable equilibrium exists' with 0% bargaining range. OPEC+ game theory projects Saudi production cuts vs US SPR releases (70% confidence), but Iran crisis forces early coalition signaling. Base rate: energy policy announcements by major producers ~30% per month, elevated by crisis conditions.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Apr 1181d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

At least 2 NATO member countries will announce new defense spending increases or military procurement within 30 days as NATO Alliance actor intelligence shows 'existential uncertainty under Trump administration'

geopolitical34%MISS

Pakistan will conduct at least one cross-border military operation within 7 days as actor intelligence shows escalated military posture against Afghanistan following recent airstrikes

geopolitical8%MISS

India will announce at least one new military procurement or defense cooperation agreement within 30 days as Kashmir escalation game theory shows surgical strikes scenario and regional security deteriorates

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At least 3 OPEC member countries will make public statements regarding production policy within 14 days as Iran nuclear Fearon bargaining failure (0% range) forces coalition positioning ahead of June ministerial

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