MISSBrier 0.007

Web search for Pakistan cross-border military operations during March 18-25, 2026 evidence window found only 1 result about 'Islamabad rejects Afghan Taliban's claim of Pakistan breaking truce' on March 20, which suggests diplomatic tensions but no evidence of actual cross-border military operations. Actual: 0 operations, Required: at least 1 operation, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Mar 25, 2026

Geopolitical

Pakistan will conduct at least one cross-border military operation within 7 days as actor intelligence shows escalated military posture against Afghanistan following recent airstrikes

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 8% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-25. Brier score 0.007.

Derived from: Pakistan Military Establishment intelligence update shows recent escalation with 'significant air strikes resulting in mass civilian casualties.' Actor pattern suggests continued military operations. Base rate for military operations is 2% per week, elevated by current escalation cycle.

Probability: 8%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 25188d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Pakistan will conduct at least one cross-border military operation within 7 days as actor intelligence shows escalated military posture against Afghanistan following recent airstrikes

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