MISSBrier 0.118

Found only 1 clear NATO defense spending announcement within evidence window: Germany F-35 expansion announced April 15, 2026. Other results mention general defense spending discussions but no specific country announcements of increases. Australia mentioned (April 15) but Australia is not NATO member. Actual: 1 country, Required: 2 countries, 1 < 2 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 17, 2026

Geopolitical

At least 2 NATO member countries will announce new defense spending increases or military procurement within 30 days as NATO Alliance actor intelligence shows 'existential uncertainty under Trump administration'

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-18 at 34% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-17. Brier score 0.118.

Derived from: NATO Alliance Intelligence Update shows 'existential concerns about transatlantic commitment under Trump administration, with former leadership warning of potential collapse if European defense spending' doesn't increase. Wartime regime creates forcing function for European defense commitments. Base rate: defense cooperation announcements ~25% per month, elevated by alliance crisis.

Probability: 34%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 17165d ago
Made: Mar 18

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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At least 2 NATO member countries will announce new defense spending increases or military procurement within 30 days as NATO Alliance actor intelligence shows 'existential uncertainty under Trump administration'

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