PARTIALBrier 0.362

Search results show extensive military activity in Persian Gulf region during the prediction window (March 15-22, 2026), including US deployments, naval warfare in Strait of Hormuz, and Iranian attacks on oil tankers. While the search results focus more on US/allied deployments and ongoing combat rather than new Iranian exercise announcements, the active naval warfare and military deployments in the region during the 7-day window suggest the prediction's direction was correct, even if the specific format (exercise announcement vs. active deployment) may differ.

Resolved Mar 22, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG

Iran will announce at least one new naval exercise or military deployment in the Persian Gulf region within 7 days as the Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window opens with zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-15 at 60% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-22. Brier score 0.362.

Derived from: Bayesian game theory shows Iran Nuclear Breakout scenario has 0 Nash equilibria and 0% bargaining range (Fearon failure), indicating structural instability. Signal shows 'Nowruz / Iran Assessment Window' approaching March 19. Base rate for military drill announcements 70% per week, but reduced due to calibration showing geopolitical overconfidence

Probability: 60%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 22191d ago
Made: Mar 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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Iran will announce at least one new naval exercise or military deployment in the Persian Gulf region within 7 days as the Nowruz/Iran Assessment Window opens with zero Nash equilibria in nuclear negotiations

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