HITBrier 0.427

Found evidence of G7 oil reserve action on March 16, 2026: 'G7 Countries Release Oil Reserves: 400M Barrel Crisis' (Discovery Alert, March 16, 2026). This constitutes an energy security measure by G7 countries within the 14-day window (March 15-29). While this was a release rather than purchase, it represents a significant strategic petroleum reserve action and energy security measure. Actual: 1 G7 action found, Required: at least 1, 1 ≥ 1 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Mar 29, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG correct

At least one G7 country will announce new strategic petroleum reserve purchases or energy security measures within 14 days as the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence approaches with Iran Assessment Window active

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-15 at 35% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-03-29. Brier score 0.427.

Derived from: Active signal 'Vernal Equinox + 2 convergent events (Iran Assessment Window)' on March 19, combined with game theory scenario showing Iran Nuclear Breakout has collapsed bargaining range. Historical base rate for energy policy announcements by G7 at 30% per month, adjusted for timeframe compression and convergence intensity

Probability: 35%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 29184d ago
Made: Mar 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. .

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South Korea will announce new maritime security measures or naval deployments within 30 days as Taiwan Strait tensions reach 53% escalation probability threshold

geopolitical5%MISS

Turkey will announce at least one new defense procurement agreement worth over $1 billion within 30 days as NATO readiness escalates during Middle East conflict

geopolitical

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At least one G7 country will announce new strategic petroleum reserve purchases or energy security measures within 14 days as the March 19 Vernal Equinox convergence approaches with Iran Assessment Window active

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