MISSBrier 0.003

Web search found articles about Taiwan Strait tensions and Korea's general security concerns, but no specific announcements of new maritime security measures or naval deployments by South Korea within the March 15 - April 14 evidence window. Actual: 0 announcements, Required: at least 1 announcement, 0 < 1 therefore threshold NOT met.

Resolved Apr 14, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG wrong

South Korea will announce new maritime security measures or naval deployments within 30 days as Taiwan Strait tensions reach 53% escalation probability threshold

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-15 at 5% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-04-14. Brier score 0.003.

Derived from: Bayesian Taiwan Strait Crisis showing 53% escalation probability + Actor Intelligence on South Korea managing U.S. military alliance pressures + Military drill base rate 70% per week elevated by regional tensions

Probability: 5%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 14168d ago
Made: Mar 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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South Korea will announce new maritime security measures or naval deployments within 30 days as Taiwan Strait tensions reach 53% escalation probability threshold

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