HITBrier 0.545

Turkey signed support deal for Eurofighter jets under $11 billion defense agreement with UK on March 25, 2026 (within evidence window March 15 - April 14). Source: Turkish Minute March 25, 2026. Actual: $11 billion, Required: >$1 billion, $11B > $1B therefore threshold MET.

Resolved Apr 14, 2026

Geopolitical

LONG correct

Turkey will announce at least one new defense procurement agreement worth over $1 billion within 30 days as NATO readiness escalates during Middle East conflict

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-15 at 26% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-14. Brier score 0.545.

Derived from: Actor Intelligence showing NATO facing unprecedented internal strain + Turkey Lira weakness (USD/TRY above 44) indicating economic pressure + Defense cooperation base rate 25% per month elevated by wartime regime

Probability: 26%
Timeframe: 30 days
Deadline: Apr 14168d ago
Made: Mar 15

Regimewartime

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

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Turkey will announce at least one new defense procurement agreement worth over $1 billion within 30 days as NATO readiness escalates during Middle East conflict

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