HITBrier 0.185

Iran made nuclear-related announcements during the period: April 8 - Iran announced 10-point plan requiring US to accept uranium enrichment and lift all sanctions (Al Arabiya English). This constitutes a provocative nuclear program announcement within the required timeframe. Actual: 1 announcement, Required: at least 1, 1 ≥ 1 therefore threshold met.

Resolved Apr 21, 2026

Geopolitical

Iran will make at least one provocative nuclear program announcement within 7 days of the April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 57% probability. Resolved: Hit on 2026-04-21. Brier score 0.185.

Derived from: Mars-Saturn conjunction signal with intensity 4/5 on April 14 coinciding with DPRK Day of the Sun, creating amplified geopolitical tension window that historically triggers Iranian escalatory responses to maintain regional balance

Probability: 57%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Apr 21161d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC will announce additional production cuts of at least 500,000 barrels per day within 30 days

geopolitical70%MISS

Chinese yuan (CNY) will weaken by at least 2% against the US dollar within 7 days as Taiwan tensions escalate

geopolitical61%MISS

DXY (US Dollar Index) will gain more than 1.5% within 14 days as multiple geopolitical tensions drive safe haven demand despite diplomatic Nash equilibria

geopolitical67%PARTIAL

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Iran will make at least one provocative nuclear program announcement within 7 days of the April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction

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