PARTIALBrier 0.449

Geopolitical events materialized as predicted: Iran war/strikes occurred March 2-6, 2026, exactly matching the prediction timeline. Multiple financial news sources confirm DXY 'surged to fresh yearly high' and '15-week peak' during March 2026, indicating significant dollar strength. Headlines reference 'historic breakout' and safe haven demand amid Middle East conflicts. However, cannot verify exact 1.5% gain due to unavailable precise DXY price data. Direction clearly correct based on surge to yearly highs, but level uncertain.

Resolved Mar 21, 2026

Geopolitical

DXY (US Dollar Index) will gain more than 1.5% within 14 days as multiple geopolitical tensions drive safe haven demand despite diplomatic Nash equilibria

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 67% probability. Resolved: Partial on 2026-03-21. Brier score 0.449.

Derived from: 80% geopolitical escalation risk across Taiwan Strait, Iran nuclear negotiations, and OPEC scenarios, with risk-off regime supporting dollar strength despite mixed game theory outcomes

Probability: 67%
Timeframe: 14 days
Deadline: Mar 21192d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

Chinese yuan (CNY) will weaken by at least 2% against the US dollar within 7 days as Taiwan tensions escalate

geopolitical61%MISS

OPEC will announce additional production cuts of at least 500,000 barrels per day within 30 days

geopolitical70%MISS

Iran will make at least one provocative nuclear program announcement within 7 days of the April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction

geopolitical57%HIT

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DXY (US Dollar Index) will gain more than 1.5% within 14 days as multiple geopolitical tensions drive safe haven demand despite diplomatic Nash equilibria

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