MISSBrier 0.372

CNY exchange rate data shows yuan STRENGTHENED against USD during prediction period. From March 7-14, 2026: CNY was at 6.8969 on March 7 (creation date) and 6.8686 on March 13 (close to deadline March 14). This represents yuan strengthening from 6.90 to 6.87 CNY per USD, a 0.44% strengthening, not the predicted 2% weakening. Prediction was wrong in both direction and magnitude.

Resolved Mar 19, 2026

Geopolitical

Chinese yuan (CNY) will weaken by at least 2% against the US dollar within 7 days as Taiwan tensions escalate

NEXUS forecast made 2026-03-07 at 61% probability. Resolved: Miss on 2026-03-19. Brier score 0.372.

Derived from: Taiwan Strait Crisis game theory analysis showing 80% escalation risk with China's gray zone escalation as most likely outcome (70% confidence), triggering currency weakness as geopolitical risk premiums increase

Probability: 61%
Timeframe: 7 days
Deadline: Mar 14199d ago
Made: Mar 7

Every NEXUS forecast is recorded before its outcome and scored with the Brier score (0 is perfect, 0.25 is a coin flip). Misses stay on the record. How forecasts are made and scored.

OPEC will announce additional production cuts of at least 500,000 barrels per day within 30 days

geopolitical70%MISS

Iran will make at least one provocative nuclear program announcement within 7 days of the April 14 Mars-Saturn conjunction

geopolitical57%HIT

DXY (US Dollar Index) will gain more than 1.5% within 14 days as multiple geopolitical tensions drive safe haven demand despite diplomatic Nash equilibria

geopolitical67%PARTIAL

See the full intelligence picture

This forecast came from multi-layer signal analysis. Access the platform to see the signals, analysis and evidence behind every call.

Start Free Trial View Track Record

Weekly Intelligence Brief

Free geopolitical-market analysis. No spam. Unsubscribe anytime.

Chinese yuan (CNY) will weaken by at least 2% against the US dollar within 7 days as Taiwan tensions escalate

Related Forecasts

See the full intelligence picture